It seems like alot of people are making duds. You never have to.
Go to the upgrade page and look at the first blacksmith skill and see what power range it produces. e.g 100,000-120,000. Then look at the mining page and if the P value is smaller then the blacksmith number e.g 90,000 you are going to get a better Pick when you next upgrade. If its higher then it will most likely be a dud that is a pick axe of lower power then the one you already have. Qual number tells you how much better an pick you have then a pick made at the base blacksmith skill. So if you have a % higher than 100 without upgrading your smith then you shouldnt use your gems. Hope this helps.