One thing I noticed which has helped me with getting higher is that the height of your tailslide jumps and starslide jumps is dependent on your horizontal speed. Thus try to get to the first starslide just above the moon going as horizontal as possible, then you will jump very high off of each starslide!
@iflewhigh You can actually retry levels. If you click the quit button in the corner of the screen it has the option to try this level again. You will not lose score.
I actually don't think there is any probability here. The only probability is in the AI moves and I bet they are not that random either. I think the shield block is what makes it seem random, but it has rules to it. Since they don't list it anywhere in the game, here are the block rules. Knights can only block the first attack they are hit by in a turn and only if it comes from the knight's front. In other words, if a knight gets attacked from the side and then a second attack in the front, he will not block either. There is one exception to this rule, mage chaining. The initial mage spell can be blocked, but if the spell chains to the front of a knight who has not blocked, he will not block it and lose his block for the turn as usual.