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ok i was really bored and did a bit of math:
if the droprates in this simulator are the same as they are in tf2 we can assume that you need around 97 keys for 1 unusual that is 241,53$.
then i went to the site backpack.tf (you can see the prices for the unusuals there) and i saw that there are around 368 hats in total that can be unusual (i did not count a different unusual effect as a new hat) of which are 90 where the price exceeds 100 keys so your chance of getting an unusual that is worth more than the keys is ~32,4%
ok thats the math behind YoyoCream's comment ans he/she is right that you should never use a key.
oh by the way thanks for reading the whole thing you are awesome :D
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Hey guys gaben hates me it gives me only unusuals and when i go to the series "?" there is only unusuauls but anyways this game is butt cracker ok nvm "butt cracker" is a compilment also gaben is unusual gaben is strange also i saw the laughing taunt right there but its super rare good luck everyone get