Forums Kongregate

Kongregate's growth and my predictions (UPDATE: 11 million reached!)

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So, I did some checking, and simple math, and found out the rough amount of time between the first account, the millionth, 2nd millionth, 3rd millionth, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th millionth account.
(1st account to millionth) 26 months
(millionth to 2nd millionth) 8 months, 11 days
7 months
6 months
6 months
5 months
5 months
4 months
This is a steady decline aside from the first jump from 1st to second. My estimations?

8 millionth account will be around May 20th 2012. (UPDATE: 8 millionth account reached May 28th, 2012, I was 8 days off!

9 millionth will be around September 14th 2012, (UPDATE: 9 millionth account reached September 19th, 5 days off!)

10 millionth will be around December 28th, 2012 (UPDATE: 10 Millionth account reached January 2nd, 2013. 5 days off again!)

11 millionth will be around March 14th 2013. (UPDATE: 11 millionth account reached April 9th, 2013. 26 days off….ouch.

12 millionth around July 16th 2013.
EDIT: of course, this is completely omitting progression of the overall rate of increase, it probably wouldn’t stay at 2 sets of each # of months.

Predictions updated to match the progress made!

 
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So, I made a little graph using following sites
Find Kong ID
Graph Maker
Date calculator
Photobucket

As you can see, after around 1 and half years, userbase growth of kongregate has been quite consistent so our 8th million account will be in around… 11 June 2012

20 days difference. I don’t think kongregates growth is that exponential

 
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We’ll see soon enough I suppose. I was basing my predictions off what the current rate of increase was, around 2 sets of each # of months, completely ignoring any progression in Kong’s overall popularity.

 
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I don’t want to hear any predictions from somebody who puts time in the y-axis.

 
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Wait, what this? The amount of accounts made in kongregate?

 
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Originally posted by SevereFlame:

I don’t want to hear any predictions from somebody who puts time in the y-axis.

This.

 
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To be perfectly honest, I think that putting time on the y-axis makes more sense in this context, since that is usually used for the dependant variable. Given the target of this discussion, which is to find the time interval given a specific population growth I see nothing bad in plotting as it was done in this thread.

 
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How exactly is time the dependant variable? Time doesnt depend on the number of accounts made. 5 days will pass regardless if 20 or 20,000 accounts are made.

 
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And 70% of those are inactive accounts and alts. Wonderful.

 
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Originally posted by tegCennin:

And 70% of those are inactive accounts and alts. Wonderful.

Just like you hurr durr

 
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Originally posted by Cosby1:

How exactly is time the dependant variable? Time doesnt depend on the number of accounts made. 5 days will pass regardless if 20 or 20,000 accounts are made.

The duration of the interval the OP is looking for is dependant on the fact that 1 million accounts are made. If those aren’t made I can’t know how long that interval is, so I see that as dependant variable.
While using x-axis would make sense too, I’m just saying that it’s neither mathematically wrong, nor unelegant to use such plotting, so I see no reason to point that out as a way to diss Maik.

 
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Originally posted by wargamer1000:

Wait, what this? The amount of accounts made in kongregate?

Yes. It’s the amount of accounts, and how long it took to get from one amount to the next.

 
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Originally posted by denamo:
Originally posted by tegCennin:

And 70% of those are inactive accounts and alts. Wonderful.

Just like you hurr durr

I’m actually an original super secret administrator account, however for some top secret reason, they refresh the date and gave me Hunka’s M.
Also, I own about 10 alts. FEAR ME!

 
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Soon, Kongregate will have headquarters on the moon!

 
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Originally posted by VforVendetta:

Soon, Kongregate will have headquarters on the moon!

I hope there are moon cakes. :D
 
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Originally posted by SevereFlame:

I don’t want to hear any predictions from somebody who puts time in the y-axis.

My hero.

 
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8 Millionth account reached, thread bumped, 8 days off, OP has been updated!

 
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Originally posted by Wiggles96:

8 Millionth account reached.

Yippee!

 
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Originally posted by K0ngregation:
Originally posted by Wiggles96:

8 Millionth account reached.

Yippee!

Oh wow, a forumer actually got it :O

 
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Originally posted by uzzbuzz:

Oh wow, a forumer actually got it :O

Yep! Took a lot of refreshing though. :P

 
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Originally posted by Danaroth:

To be perfectly honest, I think that putting time on the y-axis makes more sense in this context, since that is usually used for the dependant variable. Given the target of this discussion, which is to find the time interval given a specific population growth I see nothing bad in plotting as it was done in this thread.

I second this.

 
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Originally posted by SevereFlame:

I don’t want to hear any predictions from somebody who puts time in the y-axis.

And this is why I have no faith in the next generation. Time isn’t always an independent variable.

 
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Already almost halfway to 9 million, jesus, Kong O_o!

 
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Impressive! :)
Studies show that Kongregate is an excellent place to spend your free time during the Summer.

 
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Update! Kong is at 8.75+ million users! 3/4ths of the way to 9 million!