Draft loop hole page 2

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Originally posted by r2d2go:
Originally posted by iamtehsmart:

…posted something pretty long in reply.. tried to fix a few numbers.. and it deleted everything but a quote from the cycling mechanic thread.. >.> regardless my main points were:

1)Arestia can easily screw your deck without the worry (on top of him seemingly being a pretty common rare)

2)your assuming quite a bit with 6 rares on top of NoTG and alch that most of the time are… quite rare

3)If your opponent is smart they can work with exact damage to finish your deck (Even at the beginning all they’d need is 7 damage for a 12% chance at an auto win.)

4)An SoD would more than likely do more harm than good with 2-4 damage, a 25%-50% of hitting that one alch and winning, or hitting no alchs and making the deck even better since…

5) “Because a cycle relies on healing an alc every time a GHP is depleted, by adding cards you introduce the chance of this not happening with each cycle. The more cards you add, the more unstable the healing becomes, until the last GHP misses an alc and you deck out.” – Cycling Mechanic thread, Relgar

Double posting because it’s 2 separate people.

1. Arestia is still a rare, you’d grab it if seen, it’s not very good unless you are against that deck so it would likely be passed.

2. I’m saying a POSSIBLE situation where a 10 card deck would be optimal. The possibility of it happening is irrelevant unless the possibility is 0.

3. You need much more than 7 damage, seeing as the deck is 10 cards, and has healing. You’d heal AT LEAST 6 (1st is NotG. 1 from alch, then deplete until alch +5 others are there, then heal all but alch) so the minimum damage to kill is 8 banish or 14 regular (Inc. cards in hand), and both are incredibly unlikely (both occurance, and chance of getting the right cards for regular). Every time you heal an alch (which is pretty easy because NotG either cycles or guarentees alch healing (in fact, with a max 7 card depletion pile, NotG has a 5/7 chance of cycling).

4. You basically have constant, good shielding (4/5), and unless the opponent is some sort of insane sin who somehow knew you are cycling, you would NEED buffs to do ANY damage, and with your card picking tactics, the chance of the drawing the 2 cards needed is very low. You can always throw up a Pillar if they have a buff, anyway.

5. I know it’s not stable. Healing makes it pretty awesome though.

POINT IS, the “cycle” is better than the non-cycle. That’s the ONLY important point, and unless you have something against that, then you (probably) agree with me. I’m not saying you should try 10 card decks, I’m saying it’s possible.

1) aristeia is not only rare, there is also epic version….. and lots of varying rare versions, so it is quite common to see aristeia in draft….

2) I am also intrigued by the possibility of getting 2 legends in 1 draft…….. since it is not 0, it is possible right? I hope one of these days i can get 2 legends in 1 draft :)

3) You are assuming there are 5 cards in deplete before notg is depleted (2 in hand, 5 in deplete = 3 in deck, where it is only notg, alc and 1 other card……) if that 1 other card is talisman, you will keep on drawin alc, your opponent has a chance to banish your deck….

Another assumption is what if your opponent gets bandage when you get the notg and alc combination? the possibilty is not 0 and you may die really fast with only 10 cards……..

4) if your opponent use phase armor, you only have 3 absorb……

5) cycling is awesome if your opponent cant banish or displace your deck…… (in draft there are cards that can do just that…… fortunately you cant get any blanking cards in draft currently….)

 
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Just to say the reason why 7 damage on the 1st turn can at a 1/8 (12%ish) chance guarantee a win is because of 10(cards total) – 2(cards starting in hand) – 1 (NoTG itself) = 7 damage needed first turn of draft, (which is pretty easy to do with a lucky crit/ epic/ leg).

If your NoTG decides to be on the bottom of your deck, (1/8 chance of happening in a 8 [again 10 – 2 card starting hand] card starting deck) and your opponent deals 7 damage the only card left to draw is NoTG at that point your choices are heal 3-4 AND hope you heal an alch AND hope your opponent doesnt deplete that alch next turn so you can revive your cycle by playing NoTG.. and the chances of an exact damage (= to the # of cards in deck if NoTG is in banish or cards in deck -1 for NoTG in deck) can lead to that situation increases as your deck size decreases, going up to 100% if the last card in deck is an alch and your opp deals 1 damage. Of course now damage control isn’t always as controllable as you’d like it to be, but a person that knows what they’re doing can work against your deck is my point.

Again so I feel that there is just too much uncertainty and increased luck (which has never been my strong point in card games tho i still love to play them >.>) as far as risking a cycle over not using a cycle even if i had the cards to build such a cycle as you described. So I do not agree with you on that a “cycle” would be better than a non-cycle.

 
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Originally posted by iamtehsmart:

Just to say the reason why 7 damage on the 1st turn can at a 1/8 (12%ish) chance guarantee a win is because of 10(cards total) – 2(cards starting in hand) – 1 (NoTG itself) = 7 damage needed first turn of draft, (which is pretty easy to do with a lucky crit/ epic/ leg).

If your NoTG decides to be on the bottom of your deck, (1/8 chance of happening in a 8 [again 10 – 2 card starting hand] card starting deck) and your opponent deals 7 damage the only card left to draw is NoTG at that point your choices are heal 3-4 AND hope you heal an alch AND hope your opponent doesnt deplete that alch next turn so you can revive your cycle by playing NoTG.. and the chances of an exact damage (= to the # of cards in deck if NoTG is in banish or cards in deck -1 for NoTG in deck) can lead to that situation increases as your deck size decreases, going up to 100% if the last card in deck is an alch and your opp deals 1 damage. Of course now damage control isn’t always as controllable as you’d like it to be, but a person that knows what they’re doing can work against your deck is my point.

Again so I feel that there is just too much uncertainty and increased luck (which has never been my strong point in card games tho i still love to play them >.>) as far as risking a cycle over not using a cycle even if i had the cards to build such a cycle as you described. So I do not agree with you on that a “cycle” would be better than a non-cycle.

Ah. I see. But what are the chances of a 1st turn EXACT 7 damage? That’s a 6 attack card on pyre, or 7 on sent, extremely hard to get, draw and play, and it’s still not guarenteed because unless you can CONSISTENTLY deal 2+ damage against 4-5 total absorbed for 10+ turns, you aren’t going to beat the healing before the “cycle” starts up again. Part of the reason the deck is good is because it not only semi-cycles, it also has a very high concentration of good cards. I’m pretty sure it would still win. It’s a shame I don’t have NotG, because if we did we could put the two decks up against eachother and see.

Anyway, I’m almost entirely sure there’s a combination somewhere that makes 10 cards viable and better than more cards.

 
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Originally posted by SilentXSerene:
Stuff.

You seem to misunderstand/ignore my points.
1)Oooh, a few epic versions that aren’t going to pop up more than 1% of the time. Have you seen the number of epics/rares you get per pack? Epic is like 5% chance, rare is like 150% chance, and each card has like a 1% chance to be aristeia.
2)I’m not saying it’s likely. Period. Stop. No chances, no possibilities, say nothing more on the topic unless you think it’s impossible, in which case you are an idiot.
3)Actually, that’s exactly what I am saying, because if NotG activates with less than 5, it’s guarenteed to either have alch banish/in deck, or alch is healed, cycling. So read carefully before responding poorly. And you are ONLY ASSUMING THAT THE GIVEN SITUATION HAPPENS. THE ONE SAYING THE SITUATION EXISTS IS THE ONE WHO SAYS WHAT THE SITUATION IS, UNLESS THE SITUATION DOESN’T EXIST.
4)Same as the caps.
5)Yeah, sadly those cards are rare (as in not often seen, not purple title) and blockable for the most part.

Honestly, do you think a 20 card deck with NotG, alch and at best rares, mostly unc will win, or a 10 card deck with purely excellent rares and heals, +NotG and alch. I’m pretty sure “cycle” wins.

 
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Originally posted by r2d2go:

You seem to misunderstand/ignore my points.
1)Oooh, a few epic versions that aren’t going to pop up more than 1% of the time. Have you seen the number of epics/rares you get per pack? Epic is like 5% chance, rare is like 150% chance, and each card has like a 1% chance to be aristeia.
2)I’m not saying it’s likely. Period. Stop. No chances, no possibilities, say nothing more on the topic unless you think it’s impossible, in which case you are an idiot.
3)Actually, that’s exactly what I am saying, because if NotG activates with less than 5, it’s guarenteed to either have alch banish/in deck, or alch is healed, cycling. So read carefully before responding poorly. And you are ONLY ASSUMING THAT THE GIVEN SITUATION HAPPENS. THE ONE SAYING THE SITUATION EXISTS IS THE ONE WHO SAYS WHAT THE SITUATION IS, UNLESS THE SITUATION DOESN’T EXIST.
4)Same as the caps.
5)Yeah, sadly those cards are rare (as in not often seen, not purple title) and blockable for the most part.

Honestly, do you think a 20 card deck with NotG, alch and at best rares, mostly unc will win, or a 10 card deck with purely excellent rares and heals, +NotG and alch. I’m pretty sure “cycle” wins.

1) you know that you are arguing for a legend (NOTG) and alchemist….. so you cant really say that your opponent is unlucky enough to not have any aristeia in that draft (i think there are about 6 rare versions and 2 epic versions, whereas there are only 1 version of alchemist and also 1 version of notg) lets say chance for legend is 1%, and to get that specific legend (notg) is 1% divided by total number of possible obtainable legend in draft (i think you can get the list from the forum…. i remember i saw it before…)

As for the chance to get alchemist, it is approximately 250% divided by total number of possible uncommon (which is about 300) therefore, chance to get alchemist (ignoring the possibilty of other people picking him when they see him) is only 0.83% (slightly lower than chance to get aristeia)

Whereas, chance to get aristeia (any aristeia power flux): 2*5%/75 + 6*150%/150 = 6.13%

Chance to get NOTG: 1*1%/40 = 0.025%

Chance to get NOTG and alchemist: 0.025%*0.83% = 0.0002075%

Chance to get 2 legends (any legend): 1%*1% = 0.01% (still higher than the chance to get NOTG and alchemist)

Chance to get 3 legends (any legend): 1% * 1% * 1% = 0.0001% (only slightly lower than the chance to get NOTG and alchemist)

*calculations made are based on the total average number of legends, epics, rares, uncommon and common….. (need further clarification…… (maybe Rider can post the current obtainable cards from draft at the official forum? including leg, epic rare and uncommon)

2) what is wrong with hoping to get multiple legends in draft? i know someone getting 2 epics in 1 draft (irc he has poltergeist and hungry tentacles…. was surprised when i depleted his cards and saw those LOL)

3) i have notg, so if you want to test it, just add me and we can try your theory….
Btw, i think you are the one who is blind…… i wrote that YOU assumed that SITUATION….. (why would you respond: that’s exactly what i am saying?) LOL

4) again, i am only answering on YOUR argument that you have 4-5 shields each turn….. if your opponent used phase armor, you can only rely on your base absorb…..

This is turning into a collective debate about the possibility of getting an advantage in draft by using only 10 cards….. and on this point i believe the devs are capable of coming up with new card ideas that rely on few cards left in deck, or by capitalising on the difference between the amount of cards in deck between you and your opponent…. (deck envy maybe? LOL) (that will be a really OP card used mostly by lower lvl in duels to attack high levels with 75 cards in deck (enable lower lvls to have a chance to win against higher levels in duels))

 
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…You just ignored my bolded point again. I’m only going to post it, so that you get it.

I am trying to show a situation where a 10 card deck is best. Because I am saying that this situation exists, and only that it exists. If you try to say “no, this is the situation”, you are saying that there are many situations where a 20 card deck is better. Every knows that. It’s like putting a few grains of salt in a bucket of sugar, then pulling a cup of the sugar out and saying “There’s a tiny, tiny chance there’s salt in here, so the salt is irrelevant”. It’s pretty obvious that there is a situation where 10 cards is better, with the massive amounts of cards, but you seem to not get it.

There. Get that. It renders 1, 2, 3, AND 4 99% useless. I am assuming because I am saying that a situation exists. I’m saying that (refering to my metaphor) the salt EXISTS. Pretty much everything you’ve been saying is arguing that the bucket is almost entirely sugar. I am only saying the salt EXISTS.

Also, to the last point, YOU are trying to debate “the possibility”. The only percentages I’m posting are ones that are relevant a different chance, the possibility of the 10 cards being better. I’m trying to F****** get a single point across, and you basically ignore it and say the same thing. Again. And Again.

I KNOW THAT THERE’S ONLY A MINISCULE, PRACTICALLY NONEXISTANT CHANCE OF A 10 CARD DECK. I GET IT. SHUT UP IF THAT’S ALL YOU’RE GOING TO SAY.

Basically:

YOU ARE AGRUING A DIFFERENT FACET OF A TOPIC THAN ME. I AM STRUGGLING TO GET YOU TO REALIZE THIS.

 
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Okay, sorry (both for double posting and for raging), but it’s incredibly frustrating when people ignore the basic, fundamental thing I am arguing for. It’s like fighting a war, but the enemy is fighting over the land you occupy, while you are just trying to say you want your religion to be allowed. But they shoot down every person you send to tell them this. So death could be avoided, if they’d just realize what you want, because they are TOTALLY OKAY WITH GIVING IT.

Silent, I’m going to give up on this if you don’t stop arguing for the “different facet”, because I AGREE with you on that. There’s only an ILLUSION of disagreement because every time I try to tell you what I’m arguing for, you go back to the other part.

 
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Originally posted by r2d2go:

Okay, sorry (both for double posting and for raging), but it’s incredibly frustrating when people ignore the basic, fundamental thing I am arguing for. It’s like fighting a war, but the enemy is fighting over the land you occupy, while you are just trying to say you want your religion to be allowed. But they shoot down every person you send to tell them this. So death could be avoided, if they’d just realize what you want, because they are TOTALLY OKAY WITH GIVING IT.

Silent, I’m going to give up on this if you don’t stop arguing for the “different facet”, because I AGREE with you on that. There’s only an ILLUSION of disagreement because every time I try to tell you what I’m arguing for, you go back to the other part.

I believe you are the one that start the argument about the tactical advantage of using only 10 cards in draft….(the original topic is about setting up a warning for choosing less than 20 cards in draft)….. (check previous posts if you must)…. btw, my previous post is for explaining to you why your refutal of why your opponent dont have any aristeia in that draft is biased….

Originally posted by r2d2go:

You seem to misunderstand/ignore my points.
1)Oooh, a few epic versions that aren’t going to pop up more than 1% of the time. Have you seen the number of epics/rares you get per pack? Epic is like 5% chance, rare is like 150% chance, and each card has like a 1% chance to be aristeia.

As you can see you are the one that brought up about the chance of getting those specific cards….

Futhermore, if you read my previous post carefully, point 3 is about whether we should test the theory (do it in custom pvp)

Anyway, both of us have agreed that there should be a warning when using lesser than 20 cards in draft (which is the main topic that we originally talked about)

 
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Originally posted by SilentXSerene:
Originally posted by r2d2go:

Okay, sorry (both for double posting and for raging), but it’s incredibly frustrating when people ignore the basic, fundamental thing I am arguing for. It’s like fighting a war, but the enemy is fighting over the land you occupy, while you are just trying to say you want your religion to be allowed. But they shoot down every person you send to tell them this. So death could be avoided, if they’d just realize what you want, because they are TOTALLY OKAY WITH GIVING IT.

Silent, I’m going to give up on this if you don’t stop arguing for the “different facet”, because I AGREE with you on that. There’s only an ILLUSION of disagreement because every time I try to tell you what I’m arguing for, you go back to the other part.

I believe you are the one that start the argument about the tactical advantage of using only 10 cards in draft….(the original topic is about setting up a warning for choosing less than 20 cards in draft)….. (check previous posts if you must)…. btw, my previous post is for explaining to you why your refutal of why your opponent dont have any aristeia in that draft is biased….

Originally posted by r2d2go:

You seem to misunderstand/ignore my points.
1)Oooh, a few epic versions that aren’t going to pop up more than 1% of the time. Have you seen the number of epics/rares you get per pack? Epic is like 5% chance, rare is like 150% chance, and each card has like a 1% chance to be aristeia.

As you can see you are the one that brought up about the chance of getting those specific cards….

Futhermore, if you read my previous post carefully, point 3 is about whether we should test the theory (do it in custom pvp)

Anyway, both of us have agreed that there should be a warning when using lesser than 20 cards in draft (which is the main topic that we originally talked about)

…This is my last post. I’m done. If you want, look through and try to figure out what’s happening. But I think you’ll fail.

 
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Originally posted by r2d2go:


This is my last post. I’m done. If you want, look through and try to figure out what’s happening. But I think you’ll fail.

That is so random….. saying that you will fail can be interpreted in a wide variety of occasions. Therefore, in the future you should elaborate your sentences so that the readers can understand the meaning of your words more easily…..

 
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Considering the original point of this post, you have failed to address a point I’ve brought up twice about your theory on why you lost,

here
“And as for the problem the topic starter originally stated, adding 1 more card to a deck would mean a difference in hands, which means a difference in played cards and damage thus theres no guarantee that having added that one last card would’ve fixed your problem, it could’ve made it worse.”

and here
“Also you never did make any kind of comment on the fact that you could’ve screwed up your games completely by adding in an extra card to your deck (unless of course you managed not to deplete/draw that specific card over the course of 5+ games which is insanely unlikely [especially the last game where you depleted your whole deck], because the second you deplete/draw that card you change the rest of the cards you draw for the entire duel from that point on.)”

as well as this point
“And just to let you know there is a conformation message before you completely ready up. When you click ready, the conformation message pops up, and it doesn’t cover your card count, that should be your chance to say hey it says 19/20 instead of 20/20, not to mention your card count is directly under your ready button. Ignorance is ignorance, don’t try to put the blame on the devs (and make them recode a whole section of the draft) for making a mistake of you not thinking, in a card game where thinking and a bit of luck is everything.”

sure the conformation message might not be what you want it to say exactly, but you did have to agree at least twice before you were completely ready that the deck you made is the deck you wanted.

 
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Originally posted by iamtehsmart:

Considering the original point of this post, you have failed to address a point I’ve brought up twice about your theory on why you lost,

here
“And as for the problem the topic starter originally stated, adding 1 more card to a deck would mean a difference in hands, which means a difference in played cards and damage thus theres no guarantee that having added that one last card would’ve fixed your problem, it could’ve made it worse.”

and here
“Also you never did make any kind of comment on the fact that you could’ve screwed up your games completely by adding in an extra card to your deck (unless of course you managed not to deplete/draw that specific card over the course of 5+ games which is insanely unlikely [especially the last game where you depleted your whole deck], because the second you deplete/draw that card you change the rest of the cards you draw for the entire duel from that point on.)”

as well as this point
“And just to let you know there is a conformation message before you completely ready up. When you click ready, the conformation message pops up, and it doesn’t cover your card count, that should be your chance to say hey it says 19/20 instead of 20/20, not to mention your card count is directly under your ready button. Ignorance is ignorance, don’t try to put the blame on the devs (and make them recode a whole section of the draft) for making a mistake of you not thinking, in a card game where thinking and a bit of luck is everything.”

sure the conformation message might not be what you want it to say exactly, but you did have to agree at least twice before you were completely ready that the deck you made is the deck you wanted.

maybe it is because of the pop up blocker, but i didnt get any confirmation message…. i just press save, and that is it…..

as for what you said, adding 1 more card will not have a signigicant effect on your strategy since you always have 2 cards in hand at any time (without any multiple play in 1 turn)….. on the other hand, it helps to mitigate 1 damage from the opponent…. anyway, if you see in duel most high levels always bring their max deck size because there is more advantage in having more cards in deck (only exception is a cycle deck or torlock deck)

but really, this is not the main point of this post….. this is merely one of the reason why I think a confirmation button for drafting is necessary (I acidentally used 19 cards while I originally wanted to use 20 cards…..), but from what you said, a confirmation button is already put into place? then i better turn off the pop-up blocker when drafting lol (no wonder i always feel there is something off after i press the save button…. the whole screen remains shadowed (just like when people died) that i am always afraid if i change anything, the game will bug out….)

 
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Well in essence like I said, its not in the exact words you would like it to be in, but when you click the ready button (which is signifying you agree to the deck) a message comes up saying something along the lines of “Your deck has not been saved, would you like to save it now?” (There’s your second chance there.)

In my book its a conformation message, and theres a been a few times where I saw my deck was under my usual quota and was able to go back and change my deck around before my character’s portrait was listed as ready. Also as Ive stated before, Ive also had times where I did agree to both of those messages and then decided to go back and change around my deck before the draft started, all you have to do is click the blue save button once your done. (Possibly a third chance if your not the last person/ are fast enough.)

And In my book it would have a significant change, maybe not on your strategy, but at least on the way the games played out. (Different draws = different damage = different outcome)

 
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Originally posted by iamtehsmart:

Well in essence like I said, its not in the exact words you would like it to be in, but when you click the ready button (which is signifying you agree to the deck) a message comes up saying something along the lines of “Your deck has not been saved, would you like to save it now?” (There’s your second chance there.)

In my book its a conformation message, and theres a been a few times where I saw my deck was under my usual quota and was able to go back and change my deck around before my character’s portrait was listed as ready. Also as Ive stated before, Ive also had times where I did agree to both of those messages and then decided to go back and change around my deck before the draft started, all you have to do is click the blue save button once your done. (Possibly a third chance if your not the last person/ are fast enough.)

And In my book it would have a significant change, maybe not on your strategy, but at least on the way the games played out. (Different draws = different damage = different outcome)

Ok, thanks for letting me know how to edit the deck after saving it in draft :)

 
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Well in draft… there was this guy who drafted a gnomish knock and a bunch of decent weapon rares. He went with assassin and 14 cards and nearly pulled off a clean win. I’m talking cards like catch your breath, nice try, reckless barrage… but i barely beat him just because I too had drafted a gnomish knock and had gotten 2+ shield cards for the most part. Despite number of cards, if he had inserted useless cards in, he would have had a depressing chance against me due to the fact that he had told me his gold packs had useless magic cards so… going back to the original topic… as Rider said… “Strategic ideas”