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Mall paradox

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For information purpose only.

If you are looking for something specific in the mall, let see what are the chance you can get it.

Lets say i want a L50 purple neck(that looks like a ring) with 64cmd, 50war and 41Build

1. Mall’s odd to have a purple is 1 per day.
2. 1/9 chance to be a L50 item
3. 1/4 to be C,W,B
4. 1/3 to be a neck
5. 1/25 on chest(assuming there is 5 rows and 10 cols)

Days to get the item = 1/9 * 1/4 * 1/3 * 1/25 = 2700 days
So, its 7.4 years.

P.S.: Dont forget you have to check them all day and be quick enought to click a chest before all of them are sold.

Hope you enjoyed cuz i dont.

EDIT:
and ppl who want to buy that stuff, that mean you need to wait 1/9 * 1/4 * 1/3 = 108 days before it can appear in the mall

 
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Well assuming the build doesn’t matter, and your going for a com/war, you have a 50% chance to get one of those stats, and then a 1/3 chance to get the other as your secondary stat, because although it could be the 3rd stat, it is not as good. 1/2×1/3+1/6, so #3 is actually 1/6, which adds a couple more days to the equation.

 
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Awesome!

The more rare something is, the longer it will take for those who do not spend gold to catch up to those who do.

Odds are steeper than you calculated…
Corrections:
For #1. Slight adjustment: 0.96 per day as stated by PM.
For #2. It is 1/10th chance to be lvl 50.
For #3. It is 1/4th chance 1st stat to be C, 1/3 chance 2nd stat W, 1/2 chance 3rd stat B (total 1/24 to be C,W,B)

Result: 0.96 * 1/10 * 1/24 * 1/3 * 1/25 = 18750 days = 51 years

 
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Originally posted by boredpoo:

Awesome!

The more rare something is, the longer it will take for those who do not spend gold to catch up to those who do.

even with gold… 540gold an item… 15x (ring, armor, weapon) thats just too much for a game like thise one. And the time it takes to see them in mall its just … impossible.

 
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Now, let’s do that calculation using the old odds and old mall rules…
(for reference, that’s 0.096 chance per day for a purple, with no “lotto”)

1. Mall’s odd to have a purple is 0.096 per day.
2. 1/10 chance to be a L50 item
3. 1/24 to be C,W,B in that order
4. 1/3 to be a neck
5. (there is no lotto in old system)

Result: 0.096 × 1/10 × 1/24 × 1/3 = 7500 days = 21 years.

Somehow, I get the feeling that the old mall system was better…
Although there are less total purples given to people, there were increased chances to get the item you want, by more than double! (assuming you are 1 of the first 8 who get the item)

The difference?
Instead of a guaranteed 1/25 chance of a lotto box, the calculation I put for the old system assumes you automatically get the item — where in reality, you have to be quick to get the item (8 stock).

 
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Originally posted by boredpoo:

Now, let’s do that calculation using the old odds and old mall rules…
(for reference, that’s 0.096 chance per day for a purple, with no “lotto”)

1. Mall’s odd to have a purple is 0.096 per day.
2. 1/10 chance to be a L50 item
3. 1/24 to be C,W,B in that order
4. 1/3 to be a neck
5. (there is no lotto in old system)

Result: 0.096 × 1/10 × 1/24 × 1/3 = 7500 days = 21 years.

Somehow, I get the feeling that the old mall system was better…
Although there are less total purples given to people, there were increased chances to get the item you want, by double! (assuming you are 1 of the first 8 who get the item)

wow… ok even at 7 years it was wayyy to long, now you are saying that this is more like 51 years… and 21 years with the old systen…. can someone tell me who is getting screw here ?

 
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Since everyone is subject to the same odds, the answer to who is getting screwed is “no one”.

:)


BTW, you want 5 of those purple items for each hero?

51 years x 5 = 255 years, so, not in our lifetimes (without spending gold).

 
Flag Post
Originally posted by boredpoo:

Since everyone is subject to the same odds, the answer to who is getting screwed is “no one”.

:)


BTW, you want 5 of those purple items for each hero?

51 years x 5 = 255 years, so, not in our lifetimes (without spending gold).

you need ring, neck and amor, so its 51×15 = 765 years

 
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In conclusion, mall payout should be better.

I think each time a purple shows up, we should all have a chance to buy it. 10% or so. If a blue shows up. 20% chance to buy it. This would make a lot of people more satisfied with the system, giving everyone a shot at it.

 
Flag Post
Originally posted by LordShoe:

In conclusion, mall payout should be better.

I think each time a purple shows up, we should all have a chance to buy it. 10% or so. If a blue shows up. 20% chance to buy it. This would make a lot of people more satisfied with the system, giving everyone a shot at it.

i would like to have a new building, like the tavern, where we can take our time to buy it. Even if it is 20M cred/ore/energy… i just want to be able to plan my way around… tbh, im very tired to be irrate each time i dig a lil into this “game”.

 
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Originally posted by gotoxy:

you need ring, neck and amor, so its 51×15 = 765 years

That’s not right, it’s still 255 years.

I don’t know a good way to explain this other than…

The calculations we have shown resulting in 255 years is actually for every single purple item to appear in the mall 25 times x 5 = 125 total times over the course of 255 years.

I missed one small factor… let’s assume you are able to check the mall on time 12 times each day (i.e., you miss 12 of the 24 mall refreshes).

You now come to 510 years.


Originally posted by LordShoe:

I think each time a purple shows up, we should all have a chance to buy it. 10% or so. If a blue shows up. 20% chance to buy it. This would make a lot of people more satisfied with the system, giving everyone a shot at it.

…and you only have 10 seconds to buy a purple when it first shows up, 20 seconds to buy the blue. :)

 
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How about a tiered mall system where you’ll unlock more slots in the mall based off chapters completed and those mall slots have favored chances?

 
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Why should it be even remotely possible for anyone to get even a full set of purple gear from the credits mall?
Isn’t that why you get coupons? To have a decent chance to get purple equipment?

 
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Originally posted by waraxe:

How about a tiered mall system where you’ll unlock more slots in the mall based off chapters completed and those mall slots have favored chances?

Because selling those slots with gold would naturally also happen, this seems not beyond the realm of possibility.

 
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Originally posted by Atomslaya:

Why should it be even remotely possible for anyone to get even a full set of purple gear from the credits mall?
Isn’t that why you get coupons? To have a decent chance to get purple equipment?

Except you don’t get the purple they’re talking about. You’re talking about dropping a huge about of money for purple treasure boxes. Demon Sword < Lvl 50 Purple War/Cmd Hand in terms of War/Cmd.

 
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New Paradox! The auction system!

Let’s use best case data:
1. 24 new items each day (3 items every 3 hours = same).
2. 20% chance for purple

Result:
4.8 purples per day. Take into account previous calculations…
4.8 × 1/10 × 1/24 × 1/3 = 150 days to get a specific purple item. (assuming you win the bid)

A LOT more reasonable than 51 years!

 
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Originally posted by boredpoo:

New Paradox! The auction system!

Let’s use best case data:
1. 24 new items each day (3 items every 3 hours = same).
2. 20% chance for purple

Result:
4.8 purples per day. Take into account previous calculations…
4.8 × 1/10 × 1/24 × 1/3 = 150 days to get a specific purple item. (assuming you win the bid)

A LOT more reasonable than 51 years!

yep better, but still too high.

 
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Ok…. I will reduce the odds by this factor:
Let’s say neck, body, arm does not matter (3x reduction of days)
Let’s say third stat does not matter (2x reduction of days)

Now we come to 25 days to get a lvl 50 C/W purple for any body part!

 
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Originally posted by boredpoo:

Ok…. I will reduce the odds by this factor:
Let’s say neck, body, arm does not matter (3x reduction of days)
Let’s say third stat does not matter (2x reduction of days)

Now we come to 25 days to get a lvl 50 C/W purple for any body part!

We also have to add in the time that comes with gathering the 50m+ creds to outbid lzrs.

 
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Originally posted by boredpoo:

Ok…. I will reduce the odds by this factor:
Let’s say neck, body, arm does not matter (3x reduction of days)
Let’s say third stat does not matter (2x reduction of days)

Now we come to 25 days to get a lvl 50 C/W purple for any body part!

then now, we are talking. it is sure that the 25days… after getting some gear, will move higher and higher, but at least i can see some hope there.

But i wonder if PM didnt lower the mall odds, cuz today, since the patch, its all crap

 
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Originally posted by armagheddonman:
Originally posted by boredpoo:

Ok…. I will reduce the odds by this factor:
Let’s say neck, body, arm does not matter (3x reduction of days)
Let’s say third stat does not matter (2x reduction of days)

Now we come to 25 days to get a lvl 50 C/W purple for any body part!

We also have to add in the time that comes with gathering the 50m+ creds to outbid lzrs.

heheh well it wont last forever tho, one day, he will ran out of res like anyone else

 
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50mil is not enough there are players with 100mil+ and then energy besides that.

 
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Originally posted by MatrimKK:

50mil is not enough there are players with 100mil+ and then energy besides that.

If they have it, its because they learned it. You want more res, do more PvP.

 
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What if some players like myself made a mistake? Ive been playing since the beginning and put like all of my stat points into command on my purples because command use to be more powerful. But now war is the more powerful so it screws me up. I have a high power but a low average war. At my power level im surrounded by pay to win players, so that just makes it even worse. I have maybe… 2 people that i can successfully attack and win each time.

 
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Originally posted by Vidkid88:

What if some players like myself made a mistake? Ive been playing since the beginning and put like all of my stat points into command on my purples because command use to be more powerful. But now war is the more powerful so it screws me up. I have a high power but a low average war. At my power level im surrounded by pay to win players, so that just makes it even worse. I have maybe… 2 people that i can successfully attack and win each time.

When this happen i did create a thread about it. Yes it was a really bad move from PM and yes it really make me mad. I had to change all my heroes too.