# Furnace crafting problem?

10 posts

 I have a question, the percentages used in crafting are those right? because i tried to craft a lvl 3 item and it failed 4 out of 6 times (0,0016% chance). I know it has a succes rate of 80 % but still. Is this just bad luck or a problem, because it costs a lot of gems. I don’t know if this happens to other people but i find it weird that it happens 4 out of 6 times to me. mvg C300 *0,16% The 80% is deceiving. It’s not really 80%. I failed upgrading 3 times in a row on 2 items. Yes it’s lucky if you win that 80%. Most people will fail it. How is failing 4 out of 6 times equal to 0.16%. Does that even make sense to you? that’s 33% Originally posted by david111:How is failing 4 out of 6 times equal to 0.16%. Does that even make sense to you? that’s 33% Also it couldn’t be 0.16% that’s less than 1% lol. Binomcdf(6,0.2,4) = 0,16% Originally posted by columbia300:Binomcdf(6,0.2,4) = 0,16% This is the most tarded thing I’ve ever read. I never got failed in upgrading… 0.o and what? 80% for upgrading level 3 item to 4?! Mine was like 94% >new players >kongregate forums