Furnace crafting problem?

I have a question, the percentages used in crafting are those right? because i tried to craft a lvl 3 item and it failed 4 out of 6 times (0,0016% chance). I know it has a succes rate of 80 % but still. Is this just bad luck or a problem, because it costs a lot of gems. I don’t know if this happens to other people but i find it weird that it happens 4 out of 6 times to me.

mvg

C300

*0,16%

The 80% is deceiving. It’s not really 80%.

I failed upgrading 3 times in a row on 2 items.

Yes it’s lucky if you win that 80%.

Most people will fail it.

How is failing 4 out of 6 times equal to 0.16%.
Does that even make sense to you?

that’s 33%

Originally posted by david111:

How is failing 4 out of 6 times equal to 0.16%.
Does that even make sense to you?

that’s 33%

Also it couldn’t be 0.16% that’s less than 1% lol.

Binomcdf(6,0.2,4) = 0,16%

Originally posted by columbia300:

Binomcdf(6,0.2,4) = 0,16%

This is the most tarded thing I’ve ever read.

I never got failed in upgrading… 0.o and what? 80% for upgrading level 3 item to 4?! Mine was like 94%

>new players

>kongregate forums