Refined items

7 posts

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what’s your strategy for crafting refined items?
Let’s say for a tier 6 weapon.. do you use 2 refined tier 5 weapons or just 1 or non and pray luck is on your side?

 
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I use two as much as possible, starting with cheep tier 1 equetment and use two refined to get one tier 2. At present I have 150 dreadnought swords, the goal is to get 1 refined Rhino rake

 
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My strategy depends on the item recipe and the need for new tier item.

When I reach a new tier, I really need the new tier refined or not so I use wathever I have and pray.

After that, when I try to get new refined item I proceed this way:

Craft previous tier until I got 2 refined.

First process:
Craft new tier with all non-refined but 2, (and pray).

Second process:
If I dont got a new refined item I use the 2 refined then the last 2 non-refined, this process minimize the probability to get 0 refined item (so it maximize to probability to get at least one).

If in the first process you get a refined, the second process doest really matter. Once you have 1 refined of the new tier, you don’t have to maximize the probability to get at least one. I think you should maximize the average number of refined item you will get. Using 2 times 1 refined and 1 non refined is slightly better 2 refined and 2 non refined is slight better but not very significant (~0.005 refined item on average).
Maybe you should try to use 2 refined then 2 non refined, with the same goal as previously, because in fact the probability to get at least 2 refined new tier item is also important if you want to apply the same process for the next tier.

Here are the figure:

with 2* and 2 non *

the probability to get:

- 0 refined: 38.25%
- 1 refined: 55 %
- 2 refined: 6.75 %
- at least 1 refined: 61.75 %
- refined item on average: 0.685

with 2 times 1 refined and 1 non refined:

- 0 refined: 42.25%
- 1 refined: 45 %
- 2 refined: 12 %
- at least 1 refined: 57%
- refined item on average: 0.69

As you can see, If ressources are a problem you should not wait for 2 refined, and craft with wathever you have.
 
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with 2 times 1 refined and 1 non refined:

- 0 refined: 42.25%
- 1 refined: 45,5 %
- 2 refined: 12,25%
- at least 1 refined: 57,75%
- refined item on average: 0.70

=> 0,015 difference

 
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note that the second process may not be optimal as the results of the 1st craft is known before the second one, but I don’t think it will change a lot of things.

I think the better way to go if you have to craft with 2 refined and 2 non refined in the second process is to begin with the two non refined.
If you got what you want on the first craft, you still have 2 refined and you could craft 2 non refined to go for the 2 times refined + non refined strategy. It should be optimal on average.

 
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wwhooah. Maths applied to the Grinns. Where do you take all those numbers from?

 
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According to the devs we have the probabilities to get a refined item. 15% basis + 20 % for each refined item you use to craft. The rest is very simple math.