Refined items

what’s your strategy for crafting refined items?
Let’s say for a tier 6 weapon.. do you use 2 refined tier 5 weapons or just 1 or non and pray luck is on your side?

I use two as much as possible, starting with cheep tier 1 equetment and use two refined to get one tier 2. At present I have 150 dreadnought swords, the goal is to get 1 refined Rhino rake

My strategy depends on the item recipe and the need for new tier item.

When I reach a new tier, I really need the new tier refined or not so I use wathever I have and pray.

After that, when I try to get new refined item I proceed this way:

Craft previous tier until I got 2 refined.

First process:
Craft new tier with all non-refined but 2, (and pray).

Second process:
If I dont got a new refined item I use the 2 refined then the last 2 non-refined, this process minimize the probability to get 0 refined item (so it maximize to probability to get at least one).

If in the first process you get a refined, the second process doest really matter. Once you have 1 refined of the new tier, you don’t have to maximize the probability to get at least one. I think you should maximize the average number of refined item you will get. Using 2 times 1 refined and 1 non refined is slightly better 2 refined and 2 non refined is slight better but not very significant (~0.005 refined item on average).
Maybe you should try to use 2 refined then 2 non refined, with the same goal as previously, because in fact the probability to get at least 2 refined new tier item is also important if you want to apply the same process for the next tier.

Here are the figure:

with 2* and 2 non *

the probability to get:

- 0 refined: 38.25%
- 1 refined: 55 %
- 2 refined: 6.75 %
- at least 1 refined: 61.75 %
- refined item on average: 0.685

with 2 times 1 refined and 1 non refined:

- 0 refined: 42.25%
- 1 refined: 45 %
- 2 refined: 12 %
- at least 1 refined: 57%
- refined item on average: 0.69

As you can see, If ressources are a problem you should not wait for 2 refined, and craft with wathever you have.

with 2 times 1 refined and 1 non refined:

- 0 refined: 42.25%
- 1 refined: 45,5 %
- 2 refined: 12,25%
- at least 1 refined: 57,75%
- refined item on average: 0.70

=> 0,015 difference

note that the second process may not be optimal as the results of the 1st craft is known before the second one, but I don’t think it will change a lot of things.

I think the better way to go if you have to craft with 2 refined and 2 non refined in the second process is to begin with the two non refined.
If you got what you want on the first craft, you still have 2 refined and you could craft 2 non refined to go for the 2 times refined + non refined strategy. It should be optimal on average.

wwhooah. Maths applied to the Grinns. Where do you take all those numbers from?

According to the devs we have the probabilities to get a refined item. 15% basis + 20 % for each refined item you use to craft. The rest is very simple math.