[Mafia] Bloodmoon [Day 4] page 6

Okay, I feel like we’re getting into that one scene with the glasses and the poison from The Princess Bride levels of thinking here.

I doubt most of the people would have seen Princess Bride, there are some quite young people on here, but the situation he is talking about is called “WIFOM”.

Aren’t you going to actually defend yourself/try and lynch me harder?

I know some people don’t like clicking that last page button but I think you’ll find it’s quite important for people who don’t know what’s going on.

Originally posted by ocelot:

I know some people don’t like clicking that last page button but I think you’ll find it’s quite important for people who don’t know what’s going on.

I usually check the last page, but I don’t go back any farther.
Do we have the option to not lynch anyone? Right now I don’t think there’s any conclusive arguments, just a bunch of people abjectly pointing fingers.

Originally posted by ocelot:

I doubt most of the people would have seen Princess Bride, there are some quite young people on here, but the situation he is talking about is called “WIFOM”.

Aren’t you going to actually defend yourself/try and lynch me harder?

I know some people don’t like clicking that last page button but I think you’ll find it’s quite important for people who don’t know what’s going on.

See, here’s the problem. There is no real evidence against anyone at the moment. No one has died, and as such there is no evidence to put forth. Change my vote to unvote ocelot.

Originally posted by Sabin7:

Knoob, this is why I worry. You seem to forget that I’m the second most experienced player outside of BC, which is why I see through this cunning ploy. If you, ocelot, and BC WEREN’T scum then you would have no reason to NOT push for ocelots death. And now, you are fingering me purely based on the fact that I’m accusing you of being scum, instead of grouping up on a common enemy. Not to mention that IF ocelot is innocent, you’ll be exonerated. Those all point to signs of scum, in my opinion.

[Okay, what the fuck? If you’re seriously saying BC of all people is better than you, then we might as well policy lynch you now. Let me explain something. BC is stupid, when it comes to this. BC has about as much cunning as my foot. Even better, he has about as much cunning as my chair. If I was Mafia and working with BC, I’d lynch him so that people would think I was Townside. To me, he would serve more purpose as a cover for me rather than an actual teammate. BC is so horrendously bad that I’d rather he was on the opposing team, to eat up their numbers. Then again, a lot of people on this site are… Well.]

[I’m ‘fingering’ you because you’re making no damn sense. If I was trying to lynch a ‘Townie’ as BC claims to be, I’d be fucked. ocelot quoted sensitive information, and I’d have gotten lynched if I didn’t backpedal. BC is so stupid, that he has the honour of being the only one on my ‘Mafia Hitlist’ for sheer stupidity. The other people on this list are ‘ocelot, Vara and AdeebNafees’. I’m not sure of ocelot’s alignment, but I think he’s Town. If he wasn’t, I’d try and get rid of him immediately. He is an absolutely brutal player as Mafia, and he’s one of the few who aren’t completely retarded as Town.]

[You certainly have some semblance of intelligence when it comes to Mafiae, unlike most of the people on this Forum, but I don’t come up with plans nearly that complicated.]

[Let’s pretend your hypothesis is correct for the sake of example. Say all three of us are Mafiae. Now tell me, why the fuck would I purposefully start an argument? I don’t need to disprove that I’m on BC’s team-And even if I did, killing him would then mean that a Mafioso was dead and disassociate me from them. The other tactic would be to try and remain hidden-So why would I start an argument that I knew would result in the lynching of someone who was not on my team? I’m not stupid enough to blindly shoot in the dark.]

[In fact, an interesting point comes to mind. Because I’m making an effort to stand out and not being hasty to lynch, and that there would be no reason for me as Mafia to randomly go after BC and then back off (I backed off because I have no conclusions as to what his role is yet). Say I was playing aggressive Mafia. I wouldn’t have blabbed to ocelot, I’d continue with the lynch and try to push it through, especially if he was on my team. Since that’d grant me a convenient cover, in that case, and I as Mafia would not want to play around around the other team’s NK. Funnily enough, the opposite was your ‘reasoning’ for me being ‘Mafia’. So at the very least, the reasoning you used seems to have a flaw in it. If I was playing passive Mafia, I wouldn’t have drawn attention to myself like that. I’d simply have waited for someone to slip up on their own, rather than baiting them into it and reporting this to ocelot. If I wanted to play passive, the whole point is to be unnoticed, and there’d be no point going out of my way to lynch someone, especially not on day one.]

[My point is, Sabin’s point is crap.]

Originally posted by Sabin7:

Devourer, remember the third party in question. While I doubt Ocelot or Knoob would try the tactic, BC is quite the experienced player, and if I’m correct, the third mafioso. By arguing and suchlike, the three make themselves appear to be townies. Exactly the tactic a cunning character like BC would try. Besides, we won’t have any better evidence to go off of on Day 1 in the first place. And if ocelot is mafia, this’ll confirm my theory and reveal the identity’s of half the scum.

[Better evidence? There’s been a huge discussion, and Vara’s been conveniently ignored. Are you sure there’s no ‘better’ evidence? You’re admitting your point is half-baked-Yet there has been a ton of discussion, and therefore, evidence. If you were truly as skilled as you claim to be, you would be able to pick the evidence out. Well, if there was any. None of us are perfect, so if we were Mafia, as you claim, we’d probably have dropped something.]

[Funnily enough, my expectations were that Vara was going to draw a triangle between us-Apparently she’s not big on crazy conspiracy theories anymore.]

I wouldn’t be surprised if they would. It’s not something I see them pulling off successfully though. It’s just the kind of cunning that fits into their playstyle.

[This is funny because you’ve got it the opposite way about. If we were Mafia, we’d be able to do it very easily. It doesn’t fit into our playstyles at all, though. Myself and ocelot would be more keen to actually lynch BC, rather than me pretending I wanted to be, in the hypothetical case where Sabin’s theory is correct.]

Agreed- it’s essentially procrastination. Although I enjoy it myself, I wouldn’t explicitly recommend it to anyone in particular. To partake in the activities, I nominate Knoob for the position beneath the guillotine to be beheaded following today’s processions. It’s quite foolish to vote without much “proof” of somebody, but whatever.

[I’d like to note that simeng hasn’t said much. Conveniently avoiding discussion, perhaps?]

Not to mention that IF ocelot is innocent, you’ll be exonerated.

[If ocelot is innocent, then we lose a good Town player. I’d like to say I’m using the word ‘good’ lightly, but the terribleness of people around here…]

And now, you are fingering me purely based on the fact that I’m accusing you of being scum, instead of grouping up on a common enemy

[I’m ‘fingering’ you because I have no reason to believe you’re Town, and you seem to think that I should somehow go along with you for some reason. I’m not ‘grouping up’ on him because you’re coming in here with false claims that I’m Mafia with no evidence to back it up. Most of Mafia is speculation, yes. But usually, some semblance of evidence is presented by anyone who knows how to play.]

If you, ocelot, and BC WEREN’T scum then you would have no reason to NOT push for ocelots death.

[Explain this. You’re pointing out a triangle between us, but I haven’t seen any evidence, other than this. Explain why I would lynch someone who basically debunked possibilities of a lynch because my reasons were unrelated to the Mafia. Considering I pretty much told him that I actually baited BC into FoSing me (because I know one of the annoying habits of his retarded playstyle) so I could string him up for trying to get me lynched for invalid reasons, are you seriously telling me you think this somehow proves he’s Mafia? Apparently, I was being a VI. The reason I don’t like playing with BC is that he sucks so hard that he always looks like Mafia, so he’d be of little value to the Town, if he was a Townie. If I was a Mafioso, however, then I would claim his quotes from Skype were false and push for the lynch of BC. If we were all Mafiae, we’d both be trying to get BC lynched.]

[In fact, if I was Mafia, I would go out of my way to lynch ocelot (he’d do no better for me) so I would be exonerated. I don’t feel the need to play carefully because I’m Town, and self-preservation isn’t as important to me because all I need to do is manage to kill one Mafia member and I’ve done my job. I’m sure the rest of the Town wil-Actually, no, scratch that. My point is, my playstyle is normally aggressive, but turns more passive when I have an edge such as a killing role or something, so as to avoid suspicion. If I was taking risks like this, but not even bothering to finish the job, then I really think I’d need to play more Mafiae to get better at it. Kindly explain yourself, Sabin.]

Yeah, honestly, I was just grasping at straws because no one else seemed to inclined to just not killing anyone, even though there is literally no evidence whatsoever. Sorry.

Originally posted by SilentSam:

Oh. Okay, yeah, that makes sense. Mafia would try to get towns to kill themselves, no profit in keeping them around.
As per the reasons for you working with Knoob, you posted those Skype messages with Knoob, which shows you’re talking to him, which infers you’re working with him. I know that you and knoob do actually just talk, so it didn’t really phase me, but for others it could easily seem suspicious.
BC’s gone oddly quiet though.

[I talk with Olive about every Mafia we’re playing together. No really.]

If anything I think this encounter incriminated Knoob more than me, him trying to lynch BC for shit reasons.

[Trying to shift the blame onto me, maybe?]

Originally posted by Sabin7:

Originally posted by ocelot:

I doubt most of the people would have seen Princess Bride, there are some quite young people on here, but the situation he is talking about is called “WIFOM”.

Aren’t you going to actually defend yourself/try and lynch me harder?

I know some people don’t like clicking that last page button but I think you’ll find it’s quite important for people who don’t know what’s going on.

See, here’s the problem. There is no real evidence against anyone at the moment. No one has died, and as such there is no evidence to put forth. Change my vote to no one.

[Oh, but no-lynch is evil.]

[And what do you mean, no evidence? Is a massive flaming discussion not enough for you?]

[Also lol my text wall was too late]

Originally posted by Sabin7:

Yeah, honestly, I was just grasping at straws because no one else seemed to inclined to just not killing anyone, even though there is literally no evidence whatsoever. Sorry.

[What about the evidence against you and simeng? And the evidence you two have put out against Vara, of course. And not killing anyone means the Mafiae NK two people tonight and the Town haven’t done jack shit. There is evidence-That was what the massive flaming discussion was for. Why don’t you use the evidence instead of pretending it isn’t there?]

Let’s look at the math. There are 20 roles. 14 Townie, 6 Mafia. If we kill someone today, a 70% chance that a townie dies. 30% a mafia dies. Tonight, 2 people will most likely die. Then, with 13 Townies and 4 mafia that can die, there is a near-certainty that 2 people will die. However, the mafia will never target themselves, so we count there being 2 mafias that can die, as the leaders of the factions cannot kill each other. So, if two people die tonight, there is roughly an 80% chance that two townies will die. At that point, there will be 11 townie and 6 mafia. Unless both mafia leaders die on day 2/day 3, the townies will lose. By keeping an extra townie alive, we help the chances of townie victory.

tl;dr It’s very likely 3 townies are gonna die.

Edit: Wait, wait, there are more townies than I thought at first. So, the odds I posted above for townie death is even HIGHER.

Originally posted by Sabin7:

Let’s look at the math. There are 15 roles. 9 Townie, 6 Mafia. If we kill someone today, a 3/5 chance that a townie dies. 2/5 a mafia dies. Tonight, 2 people will most likely die. Then, with 8 Townies and 4 mafia that can die, there is a near-certainty that 2 people will die. However, the mafia will never target themselves, so we count there being 2 mafias that can die, as the leaders of the factions cannot kill each other. So, if two people die tonight, there is roughly a 3.5/5 chance that two townies will die. At that point, there will be 6 townie and 6 mafia. Unless both mafia leaders die on day 2/day 3, the townies will lose. By keeping an extra townie alive, we help the chances of townie victory.

tl;dr It’s very likely 3 townies are gonna die.

[It’s almost certain that two will die. But why do we let the Mafia choose who dies? Why don’t we choose the people who, you know, actually act suspicious, maybe? Putting off a lynch doesn’t make the lynch magically more valid-We’re probably still going to lynch the same person. We’re not going to lynch anyone who doesn’t act up. So anyone we lynch will either be a VI or scum. In the former case, the Town doesn’t lose much. In the latter case, the Town gains greatly. Besides, in your exercise in probability, all players have the same value. Some players have several times the worth of others, and the Mafia have an annoying habit of killing the good players off first. The only scenario in which this doesn’t happen is if the Mafia are inactive, or the good players are the unNKable Mafia members, in which case we’re letting the good players who are Mafia in this scenario lead us around and make us lose.]

Huh. I guess I unvote Sabin7 for now, but he still earned my FoS for trying to pull a lynch off while “Grasping at straws”, effectively admitting that he was just trying to vote for a random person to be honest.

Ah. You make a very good point, Knoob. Maybe we should just go and lynch one of the inactives, to weed out the players of lesser worth? If the player’s a mafioso, then good for us. If the player is a townie, we still haven’t lost anything of value.

Well if we go ahead and lynch all the inactives, then that does cleanse the pedigree I guess one may say, but its when someone is active, that they are dangerous. In my opinion lynching an inactive is nearly as effective as a no lynch, all it seems to do is bring the end closer, however we are at the point where any post could come off as highly suspicious, so maybe we would be better off to lynch an inactive, and then cool down over night. In my opinion the worst aspect of this mafia is the fact that we don’t know 2/3 of the mafia since there roles are circumstantial.

Anyways, Sabin7, you seem to be pushing yourself into a leadership position as if to manipulate us townies ,so you garner Fos but it is unlikely you are mafia, I still consider you my best lead so far.

So I’m not 100% certain about what’s happened… it basically seems like Sabin’s gone ahead and tried to vote for me/Knoob/ocelot for no reason, though. All things concerned, I’m going to give the same reasoning as ocelot and FoS Sabin.

But, to be fair, Vara and devourer (and Adeeb, who isn’t in this anyway) are waaay better at mafias than me.

Originally posted by BCLEGENDS:

So I’m not 100% certain about what’s happened… it basically seems like Sabin’s gone ahead and tried to vote for me/Knoob/ocelot for no reason, though. All things concerned, I’m going to give the same reasoning as ocelot and FoS Sabin.

But, to be fair, Vara and devourer (and Adeeb, who isn’t in this anyway) are waaay better at mafias than me.

[You can’t even tell what happened, yet you’re trying to give input. Hurr hurr hurr.]

[I somehow doubt those three are the only ones better than you.]

Originally posted by Knoob85687:

[I somehow doubt those three are the only ones better than you.]

I somehow doubt you’re being fair (inb4unfoundedhateclaim). Everyone else seems to think I’m at least an okay mafia player; you’re the only person who thinks I’m awful.

Originally posted by BCLEGENDS:

Originally posted by Knoob85687:

[I somehow doubt those three are the only ones better than you.]

I somehow doubt you’re being fair (inb4unfoundedhateclaim). Everyone else seems to think I’m at least an okay mafia player; you’re the only person who thinks I’m awful.

[Becuz my playstyle is better than theirs OLOLOLOLOLOLOLO]

[Well, it’s different anyway]

[Becuz my playstyle is better than theirs OLOLOLOLOLOLOLO]
[Well, it’s different anyway]

Regardless, public opinion disagrees with your opinion, hence making you the minority in this situation. May we return to the subject of “the Bloodmoon game” now?

Originally posted by BCLEGENDS:

[Becuz my playstyle is better than theirs OLOLOLOLOLOLOLO]
[Well, it’s different anyway]

Regardless, public opinion disagrees with your opinion, hence making you the minority in this situation. May we return to the subject of “the Bloodmoon game” now?

[But I’m right and you just hate me]

All right, deadline in like two days (I have exams so I basically have holidays) so I should be mainly active.

Also, Adeeb has been added as a reserve, the two people who haven’t confirmed will be modkilled/replaced if they do not confirm at the end of the night. I’ll also be taking one more reserve.

If there ever was a game where 5 FoSes didn’t mean someone is doing something suspicious then my name is hari seldon. Voting Sabin7 for not only trying to assume a position from which he could decide which of the inactive townies he wants to lynch, but also for trying to force a lynch on me for pretty much no reason. If you want to see my reasoning for voting him, just read this whole page and the next whole page and see if you can work it out.

Not convinced. Sabin’s been around for awhile, so he would have a plan if he was mafia, right? But he’s been jumping around with his vote, jumping from Knoob to oce to BC to no one to inactives. Might just be stir-crazy from 3 pages of 4 people talking.
I still want to vote no lynch, but I’m fairly certain that’s not an option.

No-lynch is an option, I just doubt it will receive majority.

And I believe several people already explained why no-lynch was a stupid idea, to boot.

WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON HERE? I’M CONFUSED! AM I EVEN SIGNED UP TO THIS MAFIA?

THERE IS LOTS OF BIG POSTS AND IT MAKES NO SENSE!

Originally posted by SilentSam:

Not convinced. Sabin’s been around for awhile, so he would have a plan if he was mafia, right? But he’s been jumping around with his vote, jumping from Knoob to oce to BC to no one to inactives. Might just be stir-crazy from 3 pages of 4 people talking.
I still want to vote no lynch, but I’m fairly certain that’s not an option.

[By that logic, he would know what he’s doing as Town.]

[No-lynch is evil, how many times must I explain why before people actually listen?]

Originally posted by coolo2011:

WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON HERE? I’M CONFUSED! AM I EVEN SIGNED UP TO THIS MAFIA?

THERE IS LOTS OF BIG POSTS AND IT MAKES NO SENSE!

[QUICK BC FoS COOLO]

[HE MADE A JOKE; HE MUST BE MAFIA]