[Challenge 9 - Immolation] Second Guess page 3

581 posts

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No… but…
Why the hell would you?
Even if you guessed the exact amount of people who bought tickets, you’d be down to 95 points anyway! Better just to stay at 100…

I don’t understand. Was this s’posed to be a trick?

 
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Originally posted by REALinsanemonkey:

No… but…
Why the hell would you?
Even if you guessed the exact amount of people who bought tickets, you’d be down to 95 points anyway! Better just to stay at 100…

I don’t understand. Was this s’posed to be a trick?

liar……you are a horrible liar.

 
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Originally posted by REALinsanemonkey:

No… but…
Why the hell would you?
Even if you guessed the exact amount of people who bought tickets, you’d be down to 95 points anyway! Better just to stay at 100…

I don’t understand. Was this s’posed to be a trick?

…you pay 25 points for a ticket. You can earn 70 or 55 back.

 
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Originally posted by REALinsanemonkey:

No… but…
Why the hell would you?
Even if you guessed the exact amount of people who bought tickets, you’d be down to 95 points anyway! Better just to stay at 100…

I don’t understand. Was this s’posed to be a trick?

Are you retarded?

You start off with 100 points.
Buy one ticket. -25 points.
75 points left.
Guess exact amount of players left. +70
145 points.

So, yeah, guessing the exact amount of players would leave you at 145 points, which is 45 more than the starting points. Guessing within 2 numbers range would leave you at 130 points, which is 30 more than the starting points. Buying a ticket, but your guess not being within even 2 numbers range leaves you with 75 points. Which is lower than the starting points.

 
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Also, you can buy more tickets for extra guesses, in case that wasn’t clarified [and you can buy more than 1 ticket.]

Clarified in main post. Anyways, for real, g’night.

 
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Originally posted by DragonArcherZ:

Also, you can buy more tickets for extra guesses, in case that wasn’t clarified [and you can buy more than 1 ticket.]

Clarified in main post. Anyways, for real, g’night.

Dragon, how do you do that though?

 
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According to my calculations:

If you pay 25 points, you stand a 1/17 chane to gain 45 points and a 4/17 chance to gain 30 points.

That means a 5/17 chance to make a profit. Also note that the profit is not that much above the sum of the loss(if you fall within the 12/17 range).

Now, you can say that psychologically, most would buy a ticket, so your chances of winning are improved. However, you could also say that most people would “get” this logic and NOT buy a ticket. Thus this turns into an endless looping situation, not dissimilar to the choice Vizzini faced when confronted with the two wine glasses on top of the Cliffs of Insanity.

Thus, the most logical option is to assume that people buy tickets randomly. And if people buy tickets randomly, then statistically you should NOT buy a ticket.

Or maybe I’m posting this to discourage people from buying tickets so I can buy a ticket myself, guess some low number and earn points while the rest of you languish at 100.

 
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Well… damn. I’m stuck as to buy a ticket or not.

By the way, you can lie, right?

 
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I hated how I lost at the last round of insight, this time I SHALL RULE THE WORLD! So get ready to get your asses kicked. I’ll be buying 1 or 2 ticket(s), not sure.

Do we have to guess how many tickets were bought or many people bought tickets?(Just making sure)

 
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Originally posted by GottaAskTheMan:

Well… damn. I’m stuck as to buy a ticket or not.

By the way, you can lie, right?

yes you can lie

 
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djrockstar, you have to guess how many people bought tickets.

GottaAskTheMan, if you can’t lie the game would be moot.

IMO this challenge has no skill at all. The lucky ones will get a head start. I hope Dragon makes a challenge that will test people’s skill.

 
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Or maybe you’re posting that to make people think that there’s no skill involved, so you can actually use skill to try to come out ahead.

 
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Conspiracy flying everywhere.

WIFOM

 
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I believe that Pulsaris is only pulling out the WIFOM link as he wants to make me think that racefan is conspiring against me to initiate a WIFOM situation, whereas actually racefan is just an observer who made a remark.

But Pulsaris isn’t the sort to try such a mind game. He probably noted the use of WIFOM in, ironically, my post. So I can therefore conclude that DragonArcherZ is the real starter of the conspiracy as he first mentioned a WIFOM situation(eg. Bluff you bought a ticket).

However, he is the host, and assuming nobody bribed him, he must have been manipulated himself to bring up the subject of bluffing, which would spark the use of WIFOM, causing Pulsaris to get the idea of trying to pretend that it is WIFOM and thus set me against racefan.

Now, whoever manipulated him must be cunning, for he knows that I will surely know about Pulsaris and will thus attack Pulsaris. Racefan, being an independent observer, will probably step in at some point. Perhaps some other player will step in to. Therefore the manipulater aims to start a fight between me, Pulsaris, possibly racefan, and any curious bystanders.

So we must work backwards. Who prompted Dragon to respond with the “bluffing” remark? RELAinsanemonkey. REALinsanemonkey was making a point unrelated to Jask’s conversation with Dragon, so as far as I can work out it means he made the point independently and thus was NOT manipulated by anyone else to attempt to manipulate Pulsaris into manipulating me to fighting him and possibly racefan, as well as curious bystanders.

So we can say that REALinsanemonkey is the one trying to eliminate the other players here. This is further confirmed by his attempt at gambiting. It could be interpreted as a backup plan in case his real plan goes awry, however, given the skill involved in his major plan(the one with the three-way fight) I’d say it is to defuse suspicion and make people think he is noob.

Therefore, REALinsanemonkey is the real mastermind here.

 
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… I had NO idea what you’re were saying there.

 
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It’s simple.

REALinsanemonkey asked Dragon if everyone had to buy a ticket. This prompted a “No” response, coupled with a “of course, you could say that you buy a ticket and really don’t”. This prompted me to bring up the use of WIFOM in my post.

Pulsaris got inspired by the whole WIFOM thing and tried to set me against racefan by claiming that the argument was a WIFOM and it was all part of racefan’s plan.

Therefore, REALinsanemonkey asked that question predicting that something like this would happen and I would get into a fight with Pulsaris as he tried to manipulate me.

 
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Originally posted by helltank:

It’s simple.

REALinsanemonkey asked Dragon if everyone had to buy a ticket. This prompted a “No” response, coupled with a “of course, you could say that you buy a ticket and really don’t”. This prompted me to bring up the use of WIFOM in my post.

Pulsaris got inspired by the whole WIFOM thing and tried to set me against racefan by claiming that the argument was a WIFOM and it was all part of racefan’s plan.

Therefore, REALinsanemonkey asked that question predicting that something like this would happen and I would get into a fight with Pulsaris as he tried to manipulate me.

Oh.

 
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Helltank.

Why are you trying to declare that, that’s what happened? Why would you think RIM is smart enough to pull off such an immense strategy? No offense, RIM. But I think you’re too retarded to pull off a thought out move like this, you may be smart enough, but imho, I am sorry but I don’t think so. Helltank, please say why and how did RIM know that something like this would happen? What are you even gonna do if all this is true? How would it affect gameplay of challenge 1 at all, true, it may help in later rounds, but you could’ve used this later instead of at the current time. How do you know RIM is cunning enough to pull off this? Why are you so trying to be influential and prove that RIM is a mastermind?

FoS Helltank


Don’t even ask about the FoS, I am going retarded.

 
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Hehe. Apparently I am a mastermind.

In truth, I was just asking a simple question that made me retarded and helltank turned me into a genius. Thanks helltank.
Also, yeah, I’m not smart enough to pull out a crazy strategy like that.

(phew! this is intense!)

 
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I’m just not going to comment on what just happened here.


Anyways, I went with the smart choice and bought four tickets. I suggest that everyone else does the same.

 
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How many hours for the round to end?

 
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Deadline – 60~ hours, Saturday 20 October, 11 PM, GMT+12

Combined with the time of his post, that’s around 46 hours. I’m too lazy to calculate the exact amount.

 
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Question: Are we guessing the number of players who bought tickets or the number of tickets bought (in which case the guess could be over 17)?

 
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It says players.

 
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Originally posted by JaumeBG:

It says players.

I know. I just want Dragon to confirm that though, ‘cause he brought the ’buy multiple tickets’ thing in a bit late.