The Mole 2 ::: Game Topic page 2 (locked)

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Sorry for not posting until now. Anyways, I’m not the intruder.

Imo, whether or not a person denies being an intruder does not decide whether or not he is one. The intruder knows who he is, so he has no reason not to deny that he is the intruder.

I agree with Woon that we should be searching for people that didn’t actually sign. And taking a look at those that commented in the sign-ups thread, we’re left with Adeeb, Devourer, Lou, and Woon as the possible intruders. And as Devourer is me and I’m doubtful that Adeeb wouldn’t sign for this, we’re left with Lou and Woon as possible considerations.


Now then, some short quotes in order to search for a possible intruder if even people that applied could become the intruder:

(Snine)

Errr… I’m not the intruder?

You had this same doubt in the first Mole. Why would you have it now that you know you wouldn’t be PMed about it if you weren’t the intruder?


(Hamuka)

Gah. Y I no have a sneaky role, even though I like them :c

This strikes me as suspicious. Why do you feel the need to mention this?

 
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Because Bluji didn’t clarify until after my post?
Bear in mind what happened during The Mole, you guys picked me out wrongly and Bluji ended up being the only one suspecting Mystery.
So pick properly. You’d never know if you’re the mole or the intruder. I wouldn’t know that either…
And don’t you guys pick me out because of my tendency to use question marks and ellipses.



Oh, and Woon is sure to have signed for this. She’s either the Mole or no one.

 
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I honestly think I am not the Intruder. Unless the intruder doesn’t know he is the intruder. Hmm… I think it’s LouWeed. He posted on my profile, a suspicious thing to do…

Here’s a quote from you in the first Mole, displaying the same doubt as to whether or not the intruder knows who he is. But it was later revealed that the intruder had that very knowledge, so what makes the sequel different? If such an important difference existed, you’d think that we would be told.

You’d never know if you’re the mole or the intruder.

But Bluji said that you would know :/. I can’t help but think that I’m misinterpreting you.

Oh, and Woon is sure to have signed for this.

Sounds reasonable/believable. Now all I need is a response from Lou.

 
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Oh, and Woon is sure to have signed for this.

This. I’ve been badgering Bluji since the last one ended.

 
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By the first you, I meant to everyone except you. By this most recent you, I am not talking to any specific person, so it could be anyone.
By the second you in the post, it means the same thing as the second sentence above.


Basically, it means that no one else knows whether you’re the Mole or not, no matter how much you try to say otherwise.

 
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Aight, back from sleep.

Here are the players that applied (according to the application thread):

3. hamuka
5. MaistlinRajere
6. Mysterymason
7. racefan12
8. S_98
9. SamsterSamster
10. SilentSand

That leaves AN, dev, Lou and Wooneh. (I guess we have already figured this out.)

Woon has been one of the biggest supporters of making a The Mole 2, so she’s crossed out. dev doesn’t seem suspicious to me yet, so AN and Lou are there. TBH, I’m more suspicious about Lou, even though AN didn’t post as much as a simple “I’m not the intruder”. I really don’t think accusing people out of thin air is really helpful at the current situation.

Originally posted by devourer359:

(Hamuka)

Gah. Y I no have a sneaky role, even though I like them :c

This strikes me as suspicious. Why do you feel the need to mention this?

I used this as a non-explicit “I’m not the intruder, nor the Mole” message. ;) And really, I like sneaky roles such as spies, intruders, or, in this case, Moles.

 
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blahblahblahblahgroundlessaccusationsblahblahblah

Look, let’s assume that whoever is the intruder will, if push comes to shove, admit that they are the intruder. If we assume that they’ll lie then there’s really no way of figuring it out, and we may as well just use rng. Bluji would not give us an impossible task, so he probably instructed the intruder to not outright lie about whether or not they are the intruder. That’s the first rule of any puzzle: make sure it’s solvable.

Right, so that brings us to…the only two people left who have not yet denied being the intruder are racefan12 and AdeebNafees. One of them is the intruder, and the other one wants us to think they are they intruder, which means they want us to think they are the mole.

 
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I am not the intruder, in case a stout denial is a necessary acknowledgement.

Bluji has made this task a lot more complex, not to mention more Mountainous, by adding in an extra clause to the Intruder characteristics.

(Faceran’s original)

The intruder is an fg regular who did not sign. Just clearing that up, that’s what I think he meant.

Correct.

(Bluji’s version)

the Intruder is there just to confuse and may have or may have not even applied.

While this would normally mean that we are borked, I am going to try to cut down the suspects by noting the usage of “even” in Bluji’s sentence. While this is a semantic argument, I have this feeling that the Intruder did not, actually, apply for the game. And if he did, it is noticeable that Bluji mentioned:

The intruder, while removed after this task, is a player of the game.

Which means that the Intruder is a short-lived player, AKA someone, although I am shooting in the dark again, who, in case he DID apply, has answered 3 and 4 in his questionnaire in negatives AKA stuff like “No, I won’t really be able to play this well, but I’d love to be a part of it even for some time.”.


With that, I’ll consider the players, listing who I find likely to be the Intruder if he did not sign up for the game. Only explicit admissions have been counted here.

FMPOV, I am automatically cleared even though I didn’t post in thread due to laziness.

2. devourer359
3. hamuka
4. LouWeed
7. racefan12
11. Woon1957

I didn’t eliminate Faceran from the list because even though his post in the thread implies that he applied, I am not too sure about whether he actually did so.

In case the Intruder did sign up, things will obviously be much more complex. What I suggest is finding out which people are likely not to be able to commit themselves for the period of time the game demands. Here are the people I personally find likely/unlikely to be an Intruder of this kind:

Although I am personally busy this month, FMPOV, I am cleared. Can always make time for Le phant’s games.

2. devourer359: Unlikely. While devourer might be lazy and stuff, he is pretty diligent in signing up to good games. I’ve never seen him miss a Bluji game either, and since this is an application based game, it’d be easy for him to make it in.

3. hamuka: Likely. Hamham has been talking about his limited Internet activity for a pretty damn long time now, and Exit List is a good example of how limited his time is, nowadays.

4. LouWeed: Unlikely. Though Lou is something of a dark horse (I think I am using the wrong phrase, sigh), from what I glean from his behavior, he likes to try pretty much everything that he comes across. Wouldn’t forget to submit an application just because. Also, played the last game and probably liked it.

5. MaistlinRajere: Undecided. Moist is a lurker, and I am pretty sure he is always active on Kong. Plus, he played the last game, which makes me think that he would be more interested this time too. I have this feeling that his activity levels have dropped recently, so I dunno.

6. Mysterymason: Undecided. I am probably biased against Mystery because he was the Intruder last time, but it’s a fact that he is active. Considering both sides of the argument, I can’t make up my mind.

7. racefan12: Likely. Faceran’s activity levels have been low even at their best. Considering how he can’t even play tourney games long enough for a good score against his skill level, I’d say he is busy enough to have mentioned the massive potential of inactivity in his questionnaire.

8. S_98: Likely. Snine has signed up to few games since his return, and he might have mentioned something about inactivity in his questionnaire.

9. SamsterSamster: Unlikely. SSamster is very active in FGs that he signs up to.

10. SilentSand: Undecided. Don’t know SSand well enough. Something at the back of my memory says that he is usually very active, but since he is running a tourney ATM, it is entirely possible for him to be busy during the game period.

11. Woon1957: Unlikely. Wooneh might be a horrible lurker in mafia, but she is very active in games like these.

That’s my two cents. I really doubt we will be able to find the Intruder, since this is basically like Vanilla Mafia where town starts off at MiLo. Best thing would be if the Intruder stepped forward and claimed, but I don’t see that happening personally.


Personally, and I don’t have evidence to back up a lot of this since I am going by gut feelings, I really feel like eliminating Wooneh, devourer, Lou, Moist and SSamster from suspicion. I know this is AtE, and if Bluji reads this, he will facepalm, but in case the Intruder has applied, which is possible, I doubt Bluji wouldn’t let these people into his game if they submitted a form since he really likes these people, IMO.

I could probably eliminate Faceran, Ham, Snine and Mystery too, since Bluji likes them, but my brain doesn’t agree with me since these people could be likely inactives who Bluji would mark as Intruder ‘putting a heavy rock on his heart’ or something melodramatic.

 
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Alright, it’s racefan then. Unless he cares to contradict me?

 
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I think the intruder would be someone who on sign-up said that he couldn’t be active or had a time-consuming thing coming up soon. We have to look at everyones schedule, and see if they’ve said they are busy anytime soon.

 
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Well, I do have my exams, and I might not be free in the week before it, but I am still firm on my stand that I am not the intruder. I’m still going to make a list of people under my suspcion, but I can’t do it until almost everyone has made a rather lengthy post like Adeeb’s, hamuka’s or devourer’s. If not, then I would just be shooting into the dark; this is seriously straining my puny mind’s capabilities. Thus, I have decided not to factor in Adeeb’s semantics. I have my reasons, and PM me if you want them, Adeeb. But I’m still sure that there’s an elephant in the room.

By any chance do any of you debate? Asian Style or British Parliamentary?

 
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Look, let’s assume that whoever is the intruder will, if push comes to shove, admit that they are the intruder. If we assume that they’ll lie then there’s really no way of figuring it out, and we may as well just use rng. Bluji would not give us an impossible task, so he probably instructed the intruder to not outright lie about whether or not they are the intruder. That’s the first rule of any puzzle: make sure it’s solvable.

This is not a puzzle; it’s a psychological game. The way to determine the answer is not through deductive reasoning; it’s by determining who (if anyone) is lying.

And someone is lying, because I am not the intruder. Of course, I would say that regardless of whether I was the intruder, the mole, or just an ordinary player. There is absolutely no reason for someone to state that they are the intruder, and I don’t see any of the 11 of us doing so.

 
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Imagine you’re a blind person who’s just been dropped out of an aeroplane. You have no idea how far you have to fall, and no idea what you’re going to land on. It occours to you as you fall that 70% of the surface of the world is covered with water, and that if it is indeed water below you, then you have a good chance of surviving if you assume a vertical position. If it’s land below you of course, a vertical position would be a terrible idea, but by the time all these thoughts have flashed through your head you’ve gained way too much momentum to have more than a very slim chance of suriviving a fall onto the ground anyway. So the smart move is to assume you’re falling onto water.

So it turns out it’s not water below us. My guess for the intruder then would be MysteryMason.

 
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My guess for the intruder then would be MysteryMason.

Why would this be? Because I was the intruder last game?

 
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Bluji would not give us an impossible task, so he probably instructed the intruder to not outright lie about whether or not they are the intruder.

If it worked this way, could we not ask every person to respond to the question “Are you the intruder?”, requiring only “yes” or “no” answers? I doubt he would make a task so easily breakable. And when you say that you think the intruder cannot outright lie, why do you exclude hamuka from your possibilities? While it was “close” to a denial, it wasn’t explicit, and this was something you even mentioned.

 
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Originally posted by Mysterymason:

My guess for the intruder then would be MysteryMason.

Why would this be? Because I was the intruder last game?

Yeah. And you were the mole that other time. A repeat offender.

 
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I personally don’t feel, really, that Faceran is the Intruder. The Mole, possibly, but knowing him, or being confident enough to think I do, I doubt that he’d be happy enough to make a cameo appearance in a Bluji game. Not to mention one that he can possibly use to break out of his self-proclaimed series of fails. Sure, his WIFOM regarding the Intruder is suspicious, but it makes enough sense for me to nod away.

I am not confident about Ham. His “if I got in here” has deeply negative undertones, and so is his almost half-hearted accusation of Louweed. I might have mentioned earlier why I do not suspect Louweed. I have Ham as a very likely candidate for Intruder on my personal list.

Moist is still lurking. That’s the very kind of behavior that makes people suspect him of being the Mole, and he might just be aiming for that.

Snine is another confusing person, but I am at least partly tilted in his favor because of the way he posted first among all other players. What he said can be interpreted, from a certain point of view, as the first confused denial of being the Intruder. Dunno, but if I was the Intruder, I would probably not be stupid enough to post first. Let alone couch my denial in ellipses and question marks. Not enough evidence either way.

Like Louweed said, though, I find Mystery suspicious. Call it stupid psychology, but his post with the “just being late” makes my intruder senses tingle. It feels like an attempt to blend in, being fashionably late, however you call it. This isn’t valid evidence in, say, a mafia, but right now, I haven’t really got a whole lot to go upon, and it isn’t like ‘scum’ AKA the intruder profits from getting one of us picked as the Intruder, meaning that he might just remain passive.

In that case, Mystery is still sus with his sweet nothing-y posts (:p), Moist with his lurking, and Ham with his attempts at Intruder-hunting.


As for Devourer, I don’t even know what he is going for with his last post, except maybe fishing for the Mole.

EDIT:

And unless you guys have better plans, I think we might as well go with Mystery, since this is pretty much like an unsolvable conundrum.

 
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Well, there’s about a day left, I think we should do this democratically (because it’s the least bad way). If everyone posts “I think the intruder is xxx”, and we keep a tally, then the last person can add that up and put it in bold as our final decision.

I think the intruder is Mysterymason. I also think I’m probably wrong, but whatever.

1. AdeebNafees
2. devourer359
3. hamuka
4. LouWeed
5. MaistlinRajere
6. Mysterymason – I
7. racefan12
8. S_98
9. SamsterSamster
10. SilentSand
11. Woon1957

EDIT: if it looks certain that you will be voted the intruder, and you know that you aren’t the intruder, you should probably do a hostile takeover and post in bold who you think the intruder is, since we will then at least have a chance of being right.

 
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First things first – I am not the Intruder. After playing the first game, I really wanted to play this and signed up, and I think the Intruder would be:

a) Someone who didn’t sign – Bluji messages them to ask if they want to be the intruder.
b) Someone who is busy.

I am 14, school is really not busying me and I have all the free time in the world, and I think from that fact I can safely say I fit none of the criteria above.

 
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1. AdeebNafees
2. devourer359
3. hamuka
4. LouWeed
5. MaistlinRajere
6. Mysterymason – I
7. racefan12
8. S_98
9. SamsterSamster
10. SilentSand – I
11. Woon1957

 
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WAIT. Is the intruder allowed to post the bold thing? BLUJI?!?!?



1. AdeebNafees
2. devourer359
3. hamuka
4. LouWeed
5. MaistlinRajere
6. Mysterymason
7. racefan12
8. S_98
9. SamsterSamster
10. SilentSand
11. Woon1957


I can sense the air in Adeeb’s tone. I don’t think he is the intruder. 35-ish?
Devourer… probably isn’t the intruder either. He/she just seems so… I’m not so certain about that, but better than nothing. 40, probably.
Hamuka. He tops my list. Conspicuous and talks in a weird tone that makes my stomach mildly uneasy. I’d put his chances at around 80?
LouLou. I really don’t know. The reassuring tones counterbalance the post about the intruder not lying. I’d say 50/50.
Maisty. Well, she. Hasn’t coughed up barely enough info for anything except for the fact that she was able to find the thread. 65/35.
Mystery. Apt use of contractions, and with added typos, Mysterymason. I’m on to you. 75/25.
racefan, same hunch as Mystery, with your arrangement of words and such. Your short proposals also mean something in my list. 70/30
Oh, hi, me. I know you ain’t the intruder.
SamsterSquared. Not a person very inclined to talking, either, huh. 70-ish.
SilentSand. No dragging discussion OT. Demerits for you. 75.
Woon. I should probably be the one doing this because I have been able to study your speech patterns. Okay. I don’t think you’re the intruder. I think you’re the Mole.


So that leaves me with my list.

Hamuka
Maistlin
Mysterymason
racefan
Samster
SilentSand
Woon



Keep in mind, I’m trying to be conservative here, if you’re on this list and you aren’t the intruder, then post a long post to convince me.

 
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@ S_98:

After heavy consideration, I have decided that the intruder CANNOT post the bolded guess. This is to disable the player who truly is not in the game from ruining the chances of others to make money.

Also, you have a tad bit under 24 hours to submit your official guess for the intruder.

 
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Alright, here are my odds.

I’m also pretty sure that AN’s not the Intruder. 30/70.

dev… He’s been lurking for a time now, that’s a bit suspicious. Still, I’m more inclined to say no. 45/55.

hamuka seems pretty sus to me- Oh wait, that’s myself. 0/100. :P

Lou was accusing people out of thin air, and TBH I don’t like that. Now he’s been less sus to me however, I’d say he’s around 60/40.

Moist’s really inactive, even though I know he likes games like this. 70/30.

Mystery. Call me stupid, but somehow I don’t feel like an unusual amount of typos and apt contractions are sufficient evidence for someone being the intruder. 55/45.

racefan… One of the top people on my list. He seems like he’s active, but really he didn’t say much. Plus, he was quite inactive in the last few hours. 75/25.

Sninetiate isn’t really suspicious to me, even with the doubt of him being the Intruder being put in ellipses and a question mark. 35/65.

Samster… So far, he only made one single post in the game, asking for basis on the accusation by Loulou. I think he’s even more inactive than Maionais. I’d say 70/30.

SilentSand. Now he’s really sus for me. Same case as facenub, with more time afk and the fact he didn’t really visit FGF for a year or more. I’d put his chances as high as 85/15.

Finally, there’s Wooneh. Not that active, but was badgering Blu for a Mole 2, and made a longer post than most. I’d put her at 35/65.


So, summing it all up, I support the idea of SilentSand being the intruder. Here are the current votals:

1. AdeebNafees
2. devourer359
3. hamuka – I
4. LouWeed
5. MaistlinRajere
6. Mysterymason – I
7. racefan12
8. S_98
9. SamsterSamster
10. SilentSand – II
11. Woon1957

 
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What’s “sus”? Suspicious?
If I get a third accusation, I’m just gonna accuse MysteryMason. Lou’s idea works.
(Also, as I understand, we all have our own accusation, and not just a final one, right?)

 
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Could someone point out my typos?


The theory against SilentSand seems OK, I haven’t seen him post for roughly a year and suddenly he turns up to sign, it seems like Bluji messaged him to get him to sign so he could be the intruder.

Votes now:

1. AdeebNafees
2. devourer359
3. hamuka – I
4. LouWeed
5. MaistlinRajere
6. Mysterymason – I
7. racefan12
8. S_98
9. SamsterSamster
10. SilentSand – III
11. Woon1957