The Red Death [Mafia] [Post-Game] page 4 (locked)

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Day 1 has ended.

After the scummy activity that had happened the previous night, the survivors had a meeting to accuse someone of the deed and kill him. As everyone cast their votes, Polak, one of the more individual survivors in the group, caught everyone’s attention and drew everyone’s votes.
PolakXXL, a regular survivor, has been lynched.
Night 1 begins now. (And since I fail with showing at deadlines, you have 23 1/2 hours to do your actions.

 
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Night 1 is over.

Apparently video games are hard to get away from.

The doctor doctored someone. Why should I tell you who?

REALinsanemonkey, a regular survivor, has been killed by the mafia.

Day 2 begins now.

 
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Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooookay I’m done. I was sorta hoping I would get further than this though… D:

 
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HI GUYS I WAT TO VOTE ZANDRYA BECAUSE HES VERY SCUMMY

VOTE XANDRYA

 
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Originally posted by DragonArcherZ:

HI GUYS I WAT TO VOTE ZANDRYA BECAUSE HES VERY SCUMMY

VOTE XANDRYA

IS ZANDRYA LIKE XANDRYA’S BROTHER OR SOMETHING?

 
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Oh crap.

Unvote Xandrya.

I did not write that…anyhow, I was pretty uninvolved with the past day because it was really confusing and I didn’t know who to vote.


So we have 5 Regular Survivors, 2 Mafia and 1 Doctor.

This is looking pretty bad. We need to lynch a mafia this turn or we’re basically screwed. One of the reasons I was so slow in signing despite seeing it earlier was this setup looks really unbalanced and I guess it’s working out like this.

Any suggestions?

 
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Originally posted by DragonArcherZ:

Oh crap.

Unvote Xandrya.

I did not write that…anyhow, I was pretty uninvolved with the past day because it was really confusing and I didn’t know who to vote.


So we have 5 Regular Survivors, 2 Mafia and 1 Doctor.

This is looking pretty bad. We need to lynch a mafia this turn or we’re basically screwed. One of the reasons I was so slow in signing despite seeing it earlier was this setup looks really unbalanced and I guess it’s working out like this.

Any suggestions?

6 against 2 is really hard, let’s hope red death will take out a mafia tonight. By the way, is no lynch an option during a day? Because if this is the case Survivors should probably vote no lynch now: at the moment guessing randomly we would kill a mafia with 1/4 chance; while if we let the mafia kill someone, in the worst case scenario, tomorrow we would have a 4 against 2, having a 1/3 chance to lynch a mafia. Instead if we lynch a survivor today (3/4 chances), in the worst case scenario, tomorrow we would have a 3 against 2, that would mean failure. So if we have the right to vote for No Lynch that’s what I’ll do today. I look forward to see your ideas about this, and I’d love to see what mafias will say.

 
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Yes, you can vote no lynch.

 
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Were you on drugs or something when you wrote that?

-

a 3 against two isn’t a failure because Doc OP.

Still, I agree with Monty Hall…. vote no Lynch

 
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No Lunch Lynch

 
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EBWOP:
I guess we can’t afford to lose a survivor.
Vote no lynch

 
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FoS Pig, Xandrya, Helltank, BestMte.

Why are you guys so intent on closing down the day so quickly? You guys are killing discussion for town, leaving all suspicions from yesterday gone. I’m making a bold claim right now; at least one of these four are scum, maybe two.
Right now I’m being persuaded BestMte is Townie from his past posts but I’m not sure so I’ll keep an eye out. So that leaves Xandrya, Pig and Helltank.

I admit, I didn’t pay a lot of attention on D1 as you may have noted from my one sentence posts.

 
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I think I’ve explained quite well why I’m voting for no lynch and ending any discussion. Instead of analyzing the flaws in my reasoning, you’re practically saying that you don’t agree with giving townies the best shot for success; please don’t ask how we were going to give us most chances of survival, I explained myself pretty well. Probability is a pretty simple matter. FoS DragonArcherZ

 
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No lynch is never good.

Because information comes from both people’s deaths, and who lynched them, and why.

Mafia would indeed want the game to continue swiftly.

But since bestme is being such a stark advocate of no lynches which are fundamentally simply giving the mafia another kill, we should probably not do that.

 
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EBWOP

Also I just want to note that you can’t really fos 4 people for the same thing, that’s like admitting there’s a 50% chance that they are mafia or not, even if your tell is right and two are mafia that’s too broad a range: they are simply misguided and not suspicious.

 
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Originally posted by ocelot:

No lynch is never good.

Because information comes from both people’s deaths, and who lynched them, and why.

Mafia would indeed want the game to continue swiftly.

But since bestme is being such a stark advocate of no lynches which are fundamentally simply giving the mafia another kill, we should probably not do that.

Mafia works in couple.

 
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Originally posted by BestMte:

I think I’ve explained quite well why I’m voting for no lynch and ending any discussion. Instead of analyzing the flaws in my reasoning, you’re practically saying that you don’t agree with giving townies the best shot for success; please don’t ask how we were going to give us most chances of survival, I explained myself pretty well. Probability is a pretty simple matter. FoS DragonArcherZ

I never said that I didn’t agree with your reasoning. It’s just that, all of you are No Lynching straight away in the first lights of day. You’re losing us discussion time when we can simply No Lynch later. You have misinterpreted my post, so your argument has failed. I never analysed your flaws because your reasoning was correct.

Originally posted by ocelot:

EBWOP

Also I just want to note that you can’t really fos 4 people for the same thing, that’s like admitting there’s a 50% chance that they are mafia or not, even if your tell is right and two are mafia that’s too broad a range: they are simply misguided and not suspicious.

I guess, but I’m basically 100% sure at this moment that at least one of them has to be scum.

 
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I was trying to do the math for all the probabilities, but goddamn it’s a lot of them. You have to consider whether mafia kills the doc or a regular survivor, whether red death kills scum, survivor or doc, wheter the doc heals himself or not, whether the doc succeds in his heal or not, and you gotta do all that for every possible outcome too… And I don’t have time today, I have a test tomorrow and an assignment for thursday. I’ll probably only ponder on these latest posts tomorrow.

 
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Update
Votes for No-Lynch
BestMte
Helltank
Xandrya
Pigjr1

Oh, you have about 50 hours, 20 minutes left in Day 2.

 
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Well, my question goes unanswered…

Sorry, idk how that post got typed, but wasn’t me.

Also, it’s pretty easy to claim that there’s a scum within a group of four, I mean, the odds are easily in your favour.

I’m just narrowing down my possibilities. I know at least one of you people have to be scum because of what I said above. You guys are shutting down all discussion. Town dominates during the day. If you’re giving up day, even just to discuss then NL, you’re ending the game.

I’m particularly suspicious of helltank right now. If he’s so experienced as he always claims, why would he NL straight away with no discussion whatsoever?


Xandrya, see some sense. Unless you’re mafia. Then of course, you’re going to try get my lynched. But this is my belief. One or two out of the list I provided is definitely scum. And to everyone else; come on, you guys all have experience in mafia. Don’t you see you’re just letting mafia get the win? The setup is already somewhat imbalanced, if you guys are letting scumslips from yesterday go by (Like I said, I can’t say much cause I wasn’t paying attention.) then you’re giving mafia a free win.


I know helltank is aggro, but he appears scummy to me because he’s so eager on an NL despite being an experienced mafia player.

BestMte; WIFOM vote, initiates the NL. Smart, idk if he’s town or scum right now though. I thought he appeared town but right now I don’t know what to say.

Xandrya; Votes NL because “majority”, votes me without an actual counter argument to what I stated above. Suspicion.

Pigjr1; I don’t know. Hasn’t said much.

 
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I’m repeating it to say that I can’t really say much within D1 unless I re-read it which I might later but idk it looks like a huge text block. I’m saying that you find something wrong with my logic of not cutting off discussion, correct?

So an OMGUS Vote/Possible Mafia, Vote Xandrya.

 
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Originally posted by Xandrya:

I’m not trying to cut off any discussion, I just choose not to get involved since I like to play the observer role more than anything, especially with my lack of experience.

There’s nothing to observe if you NL it. In almost all cases, No Lynch is bad for town. In this case, it might be good, but you don’t No Lynch at the beginning of day. You’re basically asking for 2 nights in a row and only 1 day. Seem balanced?

 
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EBWOP:

Unvote Xandrya.

> Looking for a No Lynch, but suspicious of those that jumped on the NL Wagon so quickly, especially Helltank due to his experience.

 
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Ever heard of Monty Hall’s dilemna? I see nothing wrong with BestMte’s math.

Discussion time is good, but since you can’t hammer a no lynch, we will still have the exact same amount of discussion time in return for higher % chance of town win.

Read his posts before FoSing like four peeps.

 
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Discussion time is good, but since you can’t hammer a no lynch, we will still have the exact same amount of discussion time in return for higher % chance of town win.

That’s not true. We’re using today’s discussion time to talk about what happened D1, along with who we find suspicious as of now. We’re skipping that day and leaping onto the next one, also muddling evidence (because generally you remember things best when done fresh). We’re giving away our best weapon: Our ability to discuss.