The Resistance 2 - Downhill! Haven's Fall! page 4 (locked)

263 posts

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I have already established my stance, that I will not allow these three people to get in missions anymore.

Also, I need an explanation from BLOODYRAIN10001, about why he didn’t use his card.

 
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Pulsaris, let’s take the facts.

1) Ten players of which three were on the mission.

2) At least one of the three is a spy.

3) This leaves us with seven other players of which at max three are spies.

4) As the last two missions require five people, it is guaranteed that at least mission 5 will fail if the players in it are chosen from the pool of players outside me, dj and yiu.

5) dj is a confirmed spy, if we are to believe Kad.

Conclusion: It is very anti-resistance to suggest that, since you’re not considering the fact that it is almost guaranteed there will be spies on every upcoming mission if you leave me and/or yiu out of the possible player pool.

BTW, some things from your behaviour in addition to that claim give me really some bad vibes. Here are some examples:

[Accept]

I just want to force a success in M1.

There was a confirmed spy on the mission! Because the spy was truly confirmed, of course he was going to fail the mission since he would definitely not get on any other missions! Why did you — and let me ask the others as well — accept the mission AFTER Kad’s reveal?

I have already established my stance, that I will not allow these three people to get in missions anymore.

You apparently did not consider the numbers at all before making this stance. Especially now that the mission failed, you should reconsider them.




Kad, can you really provide sound argument that Bluji is a Spy?

Kad, could you please answer this question?

 
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I know what I am doing. If there were only one spy, what I said will become very stupid (All four Resistance must be correctly chosen in M2). However, chances are, there were two spies in M1, who were Bluji and Kadleon.

First, in retrospect, it is very suspicious of Bluji, a veteran, to give a power card to BLOODYRAIN10001.

Second, Bluji has concluded that dj is a spy. However, he hid the assumption that Kad is a resistance. My point is, Kad may be a spy framing dj.

Let me write more tomorrow, too tired.

 
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Wait. EBWOP.

I now noticed that Kad wasn’t on M1. Stupid me. Please take everything I said as bullshit.

Fuckup tally: 1.

 
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I’ve concluded that dj is a spy, because it’s pretty likely for him to have failed the mission since he was confirmed as a spy in-thread. Obviously, I consider myself as a Resistance since I’m one. yiu could be a spy or Resistance, so I’m putting her into my nulltell zone.

 
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Originally posted by BLOODYRAIN10001:

Due to bills that pay for internet access, except me to be off starting either tomorrow or the day after that, for a considerable amount of time. I may be able to get on occasionally, but not often. A best case scenario is the bill is paid before January. That is allz.

If I had a better estimate than just “before January”, I’d feel comfortable with leaving you in this game.
Behemoth542 has replaced BLOODYRAIN10001.
 
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Confirmation™

Time to go deep into posts

 
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HOST: Card use must be stated in thread?

 
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Originally posted by Behemoth542:

HOST: Card use must be stated in thread?

Yes.

1/8/2014: I’m a dumbass. If it was an immediate-use card such as Open Up, I should’ve said that those had to be PM’d to me, while any-time cards had to be posted publicly. Sorry Behemoth542!

 
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MOD: Could we have a set of prods? It seems most players have trouble waking up into the second mission.

 
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The following players have been prodded: Kadleon, dawn_to_dusk, yiu113, Precarious, DragonArcherZ, sebba

I suddenly remember having activity issues in the first Resistance game. anime fall

 
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Oh look, I have been prodded.

Can I ask something, RaceBandit? Is a player with overheard conversation allowed to say the opposite of the result?

 
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Players may lie about the result they get from Overheard Conversation and/or Establish Confidence.

…also fixed Palkia’s line from when Daiyousei asked about hammers. The issue he mentioned would mean nothing to Resistance.

 
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giggles* i was prodded. hee hee

so do i just choose who is on teh mission or do we need to accept/decline it still?

 
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EBWOP
dont mind me, ill understand the game eventually

 
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You have to distribute this mission’s power cards either before or during the team proposal, then everyone else votes on it.

 
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Okay, I’m back Race.


On Day 1, Kadleon investigated djrockstar, and claimed he was a spy.

Originally posted by Kadleon:

Jackpot! Djrockstar is a spy :D

dj, of course, claimed that Kadleon made a fake spy claim.


Originally posted by djrockstar:

I’m gonna go ahead and call Kadleon a spy for making a fake spy claim. His over-aggressive play style does hint towards him being a spy and looking for others to push under the bus so he could stay off the radar.

Now, if Kadleon is Resistance, then dj is a spy. It would obviously make no sense for a Resistance player to falsely accuse another Resistance player. However, if Kad is a spy, that doesn’t necessarily clear dj. Either dj could be Resistance player being framed by Kad, or they could both be spies, and Kad sacrificed dj to entrench himself as likely resistance.

Generally speaking, elaborate gambits are uncommon in mafia games here. I’d assume Resistance games are similar. As such, I find Kad (resistance), dj (spy), to be the most likely possibility in a vacuum; followed by Kad (spy), dj (resistance); followed by Kad (spy), dj (spy). However none of those three possibilities can be positively eliminated at this point.

(It does provide us with our first hard rule, however: We should never send both Kad AND dj on a mission, since at least one of them has to be a spy.)

We do, however, have additional information. We know that Mission 1 failed, and that it failed because of a single vote. As such, we know that one of the three players voted to fail the mission. That guarantees that at least one of the three players on the mission was a spy. We have no way to know at this stage whether one, two, or all three of them are guilty, only that zero is impossible.

However, we can discern much from what happened.

If dj is a spy, then he was likely the failing vote. He’s already under suspicion because he was investigated by Kad, so it would have made sense for him to guarantee a failed mission while he had the opportunity, since the accusation would likely preclude him from future missions barring being cleared by another player. This would also provide some measure of cover for any other spies on the mission, who would be able to claim that they voted to pass it (we know that only one player failed the mission).

The problem, of course, is if dj is Resistance, since the above scenario would provide a Spy with carte blanche to fail the mission, knowing the blame could be passed to dj.


Originally posted by Pulsaris:

I have already established my stance, that I will not allow these three people to get in missions anymore.

Also, I need an explanation from BLOODYRAIN10001, about why he didn’t use his card.

I partially agree with this idea; for now, there is a risk associated with all Mission 1 participants. That said, it may be possible to discern their alignments as the game progresses—absolute rigidity is dangerous. Bluji’s analysis is relevant; let’s assume that there was only one spy on mission 1. If so, there are four resistance and three spies among the remaining players. As such, at least one spy would necessarily be chosen for mission 5.

However, there is a (suspicious) mistake in his analysis.


Originally posted by Bluji:

4) As the last two missions require five people, it is guaranteed that at least mission 5 will fail if the players in it are chosen from the pool of players outside me, dj and yiu.

Let’s assume that dj is a spy, and that he voted against Mission 1. In that case, Bluji and yiu would have voted for the mission to pass. But that does not exonerate either of them. Let’s further assume that Bluji is Resistance, but yiu is a spy, who voted pass so as not to incriminate herself. Under that scenario, even with Bluji assumed clear, there are five resistance candidates among the seven remaining players. As such, his analysis is flawed; for a guaranteed doomed mission, he has to be assuming that both he and yiu are clear. However, if he is resistance, he would have no way to know yiu’s alignment, and thus could not make that guarantee. This is either a mistake in logic, or a scumtell.


There is a problem with Pulsaris’ math too, however, and it has nothing to do with whether Kad was on Mission 1.

Originally posted by Pulsaris:

I know what I am doing. If there were only one spy, what I said will become very stupid (All four Resistance must be correctly chosen in M2).

Pulsaris seems to believe that only four resistance are needed to pass Mission 5. But Race’s previous rule set—which is being used here—suggests that there are five players needed for Mission 5.

Originally posted by RaceBandit:

looks like the old stuff is another can of worms.

I will be using the same ruleset as in the last game, so if you don’t know how to play, click the link in Spark Shock’s line.

(I can’t quote from a locked thread, apparently, but the link is in the quote above.)

This error would be a good way to guarantee a fail on mission 5—but that failure only guarantees if both Bluji and yiu are resistance.


Thus, my analysis so far is as follows:

At least one of Kad and dj is a spy. dj, because he was identified through a known mechanic, and because he was on a failed mission, is by far the more likely of the two to be a spy.

Accordingly, we should never send both of them on a mission together.

Bluji made an assumption about both his and yiu’s alignment. While he knows whether he is resistance or spy, he cannot know that about yiu unless he is a spy. Thus, his statement either assumes that yiu is resistance just so he can get on missions again, or indicates outside knowledge of alignment, which is a huge scumtell.

Pulsaris made a mistake regarding a mechanical element of the game. That is less likely to be scum-indicative, but still warrants further consideration, and demands a correction.


I’ll post again when we have a proposal to work with.

 
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So there seems to be a bit of confusion, probably because I linked to an old game instead of reposting a ruleset.

When proposing a team, it has to be posted publicly. Furthermore, a team cannot be proposed until the mission’s power cards have been distributed, although a post can handle both the cards and the team. As a reminder, this mission’s cards are Establish Confidence, Opinion Maker, and Strong Leader.

Oh, and exactly four people are needed for this mission. I was PM’d a five player list with no card distribution.

 
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[Prec]

Ah, you’re right. Well, I’m assuming that yiu is Resistance and based on that my logic works. However, if he is a spy, then it’s still rather likely that mission 5 will fail (2 spies out of 7 — ALL resistance members would have to be picked). Statistics speak for themselves here.

Although, I guess we shouldn’t much discuss mission 5 right now — since it looks very unlikely that we’ll make it even that far. Based on what I’ve seen, missions 2 and 3 very often fail, so we’re at a great risk here.


I’m getting really suspicious of Kad. After claiming he believes that I’m a spy, he has been totally dead on activity. It would really be necessary if he could provide some sort of an opinion, since he is in the middle of everything atm.

 
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(Prec)

I partially agree with this idea; for now, there is a risk associated with all Mission 1 participants. That said, it may be possible to discern their alignments as the game progresses—absolute rigidity is dangerous. Bluji’s analysis is relevant; let’s assume that there was only one spy on mission 1. If so, there are four resistance and three spies among the remaining players. As such, at least one spy would necessarily be chosen for mission 5.

At least, do you agree that we should not let any M1 players go on M2? Firstly, they have a high risk factor. Secondly, we need to gain information from more people. Thirdly, we can also glean information about the M1 players from their use of cards, if they are given cards.

Wait, no, it makes M2 more dangerous. Fine, as I say, we can only work if we have more information. I shall not have a definitive stance before the last moment. Also, we have more pressing issues, shown at the bottom of this post.

Pulsaris seems to believe that only four resistance are needed to pass Mission 5. But Race’s previous rule set—which is being used here—suggests that there are five players needed for Mission 5.

Sorry for the hidden assumption and let me express myself more. My original thinking was that we cannot pass M5 no matter what. The random probability of passing M5 is 2.3%, and the experimental rate for me is 0%. Therefore, I didn’t even include M5 in my maths. After more thorough thinking, there are two paths to a Resistance win:

1. Passing M2, 3 and 4.
2. Passing M5.

Both paths are nigh impossible. So, if we want to win, we will be braving the impossible with no exception. Hmmmmm.

It is my fault not to consider M5, sorry.


(Behemoth542)

Please answer these: Why did BLOODYRAIN10001 not use his card, in your opinion? Do you think it is scummy?


(dawn_to_dusk)

So, you PM’d a list to RB? Why do you do this in such a secret way, especially when the list of M1 is posted publicly?

Also, why didn’t you ask us about our opinions? How did you make a decision without posting anything but fluff?

 
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Pardon me, it’s none of my business, but I think dawn might’ve PM’d the list because…

Originally posted by dawn_to_dusk:

EBWOP
dont mind me, ill understand the game eventually

…he’s a newbie to the game format?

 
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I’m getting really suspicious of Kad. After claiming he believes that I’m a spy, he has been totally dead on activity. It would really be necessary if he could provide some sort of an opinion, since he is in the middle of everything atm.

He has been extremely quiet since he accused me, I think he didn’t expect me to fight his claim, and was probably expecting everyone to immediately believe him, which has not happened.

do you agree that we should not let any M1 players go on M2?

While this question wasn’t aimed at me, I do think that Bluji and Yiu should not be on the next mission as I know one of them is a confirmed spy. I, myself am a resistance so I do think I should be on the next missions. We’ll see about that later.

 
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dawn_to_dusk has timed out.

Establish Confidence: Behemoth542
Opinion Maker: Bluji
Strong Leader: Bluji
(again)

Captain: dawn_to_dusk
On deck: yiu113
Scout 1: Bluji
Scout 2: yiu113
Scout 3: sebba
Scout 4: dawn_to_dusk

Wow, Random.org, you picked Bluji three times in a row.

I may have to double-check the power card rules; I don’t remember reading anything for or against distributing two or three of a mission’s cards to the same player.

All this would affect is who really gets SL, but for now, Bluji has 24 hours to vote on the mission because Opinion Maker. Deadline is 12/21, 1 PM, MST. After the Opinion Maker phase, Bluji’s vote will be locked in and the other players may vote on the mission.

 
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Hehehe, well this is awkward…

I timed out cos I left after I pm’d race the team list… Sorry all :)

I was prodded on the last day. I panicked and by the time I figured everyone would post, I would not be online and could not send in the list. The reason I sent it in private, well… I thought that was what I meant to do… Last time it was shown, it must have been at the end of the page cause I pressed last to go to the last page and I saw race show the team and I thought: “oh, fair enough, I’m not on it. What now? Vote? Ok!” I now actually know how to play the game, I won’t make that mistake again. If we fail this mission, it is my fault for not choosing the team. The way I chose was just look for the people who had made large contributions to this game (I.e. The ones with the biggest posts XD) excluding those from M1. I will wait for some more info before I place my vote (after bluji) but I hope I have answered all your questions.

Race, it is not your fault I didn’t understand the game. It is entirely my fault for not doing extensive research on it.

 
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[Decline]

I agree with Pulsaris that we should discuss some more. Of course, I would like to be on the mission, since I’m resistance, but I know all of you won’t probably accept the current mission, especially when it seems to be an RNG’d mission.