AS2/Flash 8 or AS3/Flash 9?

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First question:
I’m having a tough time deciding which route to go. On the one hand, coming from a strong OOP background, I prefer the AS3 API. The performance gains are appealing, especially since my computer is slow and I’ve played too many slow games to ever wish that upon other people. On the other hand, most of the ideas I have don’t involve much computation. Furthermore, I’m planning on using free/open source tools exclusively and in my experiments there seem to be many issues all over the place w.r.t good Flash 9 support. Right now I’m thinking Haxe targetting FP8 as the best option because there is some degree of flexibility in moving towards FP9 without having to change my tool chain much after the initial work. Anybody have some thoughts?

Second question:
One important variable will be market size… Does Kong keep statistics of which players people use? I wouldn’t want to write Flash 9 games if it turns out that will lock out a good portion of the players!

 
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Second Question:I don’t know much about the technical advantages, but there always seems to be a little rough time when a new version of flash first comes out, but everyone is eventually forced to switch. So, seeing as how you seem to prefer the AS3 API the best course would be to use it. It’s very easy to get a new flash player to support flash 9. Include a plain text link in the title screen of your game if you are very worried.

 
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Here are Adobe’s penetration statistics. I don’t know about any Kongregate-specific statistics, but I’d guess that the Kong percentages would be a bit higher than average. Regardless, unless you really don’t want to go through the trouble of learning AS2 and AS3 (although it shouldn’t be that difficult to make the transition), it’d probably be better to start with AS2 because Kongregate’s APIs currently don’t support AS3.

 
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yeah, kong’s api’s not supporting as3 is pretty lame, but I’m sure they’ll be on that pretty quick. When you really get down to it, using as2 for a java or c++ programmer is like playing rugby with 7 year olds. It’s easy in pretty much every sense of the word and you don’t even have to use correct syntax or declare variables anywhere. as3 be faster fo realz, however.