LOLMarket guide (locked)

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The lolmarket is the single most effective way to make green coins, and you can unlock by buying it in the features shop for 40m at level 400.

Lolmarket has six different gems in it, which I will call Lv 1-6 and color from now on.

The way the price is decided is by something called demand. When a lot of imaginary people wants a type of gem, the price will raise. If nobody wants it, the demand will drop. You can see this here;

As you can see the green gem, lv 1, has demand - 40. This means the price of this gem will decrease. The blue gem, lv 4, on the other hand has demand + 34 and will be increasing in price. The more plus or minus the demand is, the more likely the price is to steadily go in that direction.
The demand has a chance to update (=change) randomly, and you can't control in what direction it will go nor provoke it happening.
The formula for how the demand changes looks like this;
Lv 1 green gem: random value between -2 and 2
Lv 2 red gem: random value between -3 and 3
Lv 3 purple gem: random value between -4 and 4
Lv 4 blue gem: random value between -5 and 5
Lv 5 yellow gem: random value between -6 and 6
Lv 6 white gem: random value between -7 and 7
You do have a chance to influence the demand a little bit though, which is done by buying "Lolmarket Control: Type 1/2" (1 or 2) on the second page of the features shop, in the shape of a green star. You can either raise (Type 2) or drop (Type 1) the demand on gems. Buying a lolmarket control will give a number between 0-19, plus or minus depending on which type you choose. There is a time limit of how often you can buy these, once you bought you have to wait for the lolmarket to update 10 times before it is available again. There is also a limit of how low or high a demand can get. The lowest a demand can be is - 40, and the highest is + 40. Although it can go above or below this temporarily, if you buy a control type (explanations below). Demand and price works like so that each time your lolmarket is updated, the price will get +X where X is the demand the gem has after the update. Confusing? It basically means if your demand was +35, but got upped to +40 and your gem was worth 1000, after the update it will be 1040. If instead of plus we would have had minus, it would now be worth 960.
The order of how this happens is;
1. Demand gets +/- value according to info above
2. Price gets added/subtracted with the demand
3. Demand is automatically changed to +/- 40, if it is still above or below it. This means the price can be added or subtracted with more than 40, but it will automatically be set to 40 after the update.

You can increase the max amount of gems you can hold by buying a "Lolmarket expansion". As you can see in the picture below, I have 50 as max. You start out with 10, and can increase it up to 60. The price for each additional gem slot increases with each purchase, so it gradually gets more and more expensive. You find the upgrade on the second page of the features shop in the shape of a green star.
You can see how many gems you have of each kind, and what your maximum is here;


As mentioned lolmarket has six different gems. The first one is the cheapest, and the last one is the most expensive. The *price range* of each gem works more or less like this;
Minimum price Lv*500
Maximum price Lv*2500
What you have to keep in mind is that this is the price you buy the gem for, and the selling price is always 94% of the buy price, which means you can not actually sell a lv 1 gem for 2500 but 2350. Also gems rarily reach the minimum or maximum, so you won’t see a gem for their exact minimum price or maximum price very often.

I find that following these guidelines are helpful;

BUY being the price the gem costs to buy, SELL being the price you get when selling it.
What this image is supposed to help you with, is to give you an idea of how high or low a gem is “likely” to go (it can go higher and lower in some cases, but it tends to stay around those levels if you do not use control types). It’s not necessarily the most profitable to always follow these prices, as you can read under methods, but it gives you a generic idea of what you can expect them to reach. It is best if you study the prices yourself and get a feel for more or less how high/low you see them reach, but this can give you a hint to start working with.

There are several ways to go about the lolmarket and each person has their style. Some people will buy the demand-control in features shop, others will not. It is entirely up to you how you want to do, but here are some general tips of how to make a good profit:

Control type use;
1. If you see many of the gems have a very low demand, buy a control type 1 to keep them steadily going down. The lower price you buy the gem for, the more profit you can make eventually.
2. If you see the demand of gems you have is going up, buy a control type 2 to give it a boost and keep it going up.
NOTE: Generally if the demand is +/- 15, it is not much point to try influence them with lolmarket control, because it often happens that it decides to go up when you said down or the other way around making it a waste of money. Usually you get more effect for the coins if you focus on keeping it in the direction it's already going.

Buy/Sell “methods”
One strategy is to buy gems only when they are close to their minimum price, and wait until they happen to be at their max, or very high. This gives you the biggest profit per gem, but takes longer since they often take a while to get to min. or max. price. But if you don't want to pay attention all the time, this is one way to do it. Often helps to buy some control types to help them reach. This generally takes a lot of time, and I wouldn’t recommend it since the main important factor is demand (read below), but if you want to just kinda idle about and not pay much attention, buying the gems at their lowest rate always and then either sell at max price or whenever you check in on it and think the profit is good enough. Again, I would recommend the second “method” presented below.
This “method” requires that you keep a close eye on the demand, and buy gems that you see are on the rise. For example say you see a Lv 4 Blue gem at 6000 with demand +40. This gem is very likely to continue upwards, and can still be raised by another 2000 or so, so buying it could be a good idea. Doing this way you might not get as much for each gem, but it tends to take less time between buying and selling and that way you can spend the coins again on some other gem and keep making profit all the time. I wouldn’t recommend buying gems that are too close to their max price though, since you will make very little profit in the end and also risk the demand not quite wanting to stay up ending in you not making profit at all. Also this “method” is to sell off gems when the demand is going down, even if that might not be the best profit attainable. Why? Since the demand is down, the price will drop and it might take a very long time to go back up. It is probably going to serve you more to sell it and buy some other gem that is on the rise. Of course if you are really OCD and want to sell at max price, you can keep waiting, but in most cases you will get more profit by following the demand rather than the price.

The single most important thing though, is that you sell your gems WITH profit. Of course this is rather basic and obvious, but it doesn’t hurt to stress it one more time. How do you know you if are making a profit? You can see it here;


+X means you are going to get that much more for the gem than what you paid for it. For example if you paid 1000, and the gem now sells for 1500, the profit will say +500. Basically the profit is how much of the total sell price is additional to what you spent on it in the first place.
-X means the gem is worth less now than it was when you sold it, and it is a bad idea to sell it. Generally selling with minus is not a good idea, but if you want to then you can of course do so. At times you might want to sell a gem for less because you need the green coins to buy some other gem with bigger profit-possibilities, but I would not recommend doing this unless you are “experienced” and know the lolmarket well, and even so I’d think twice about it.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT PROFIT!
The profit displayed in the lolmarket will be counted from the last gem you bought, which can cause some “trouble”. Assume you buy 5 lv 1 gems for 500 gc, sell price say 470. The profit will display -30. Later you check in on it and the buy price has raised to 1000, and the sell price is 940. The profit will show +500. If you buy a gem now, for 1000, the profit will instead show -60, cause that is what the last gem bought would indicate. It will still show this even if you sell off that last gem. To avoid getting confused and risking to lose profit, I would recommend that you don’t buy gems of the same type at different occasions.

*FOR A SHORTER VERSION LOLMARKET GUIDE* made by Randomthought31, look here: http://www.kongregate.com/forums/60-anti-idle-the-game/topics/134535-randoms-guide-no-1-lolmarket?page=1#posts-2939593

I hope there aren’t too many errors, feel free to tell me if something is wrong or if there is something I missed to add. Also if anyone knows the exact time between each control type purchase, I’d appreciate it if you share =)

Credit for helping goes to;
- GeneralYouri
- Draconi
- qlordz
 
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Good guide. 5/5
Personally, I think that Buy at 1100*Lv and sell at 1900*Lv is reasonable for the higher levels. But, that’s just me.

 
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3/5 needs more raw statistics instead of vague approximations

Max demand is also +40

Include that you should try to get the cycle of what gems go up/down when into a legitimate pattern, so that when buying demand increase/decrease, it affects as many as possible in the way you want it to go

Also, for buy/sell, I would say buy when lower than n*1000, or if it’s close, and demand has gone upwards; sell when demand is below 0, if you have positive profit. It depends more on what demand is than the actual price of the gem.

 
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Originally posted by qlordz:

3/5 needs more raw statistics instead of vague approximations

Max demand is also +40

Include that you should try to get the cycle of what gems go up/down when into a legitimate pattern, so that when buying demand increase/decrease, it affects as many as possible in the way you want it to go

Also, for buy/sell, I would say buy when lower than n*1000, or if it’s close, and demand has gone upwards; sell when demand is below 0, if you have positive profit. It depends more on what demand is than the actual price of the gem.

I personally hate math and statistics, which is why this a more general approx guide. If anyone posts useful statistics I’m more than glad to put them in there =) Not quite sure if there are more statistics to add, but as I said, if somebody posts them I’ll put it in.

What do you mean with include a cycle of gems going up and down so that when you buy control types blabla so on. That is what I meant with this;
“If you see many of the gems have a very low demand, buy a control type 1 to keep them steadily going down.”
“If you see the demand of gems you have is going up, buy a control type 2 to give it a boost and keep it going up.”

Max demand is not + 40. Perhaps it won’t naturally go over +40, I thought that was the max too until I bought a load of extensions and suddenly saw it at like +56.

Definately will change to the sell when demand is going down, completly forgot that. Thanks!

 
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Alright, sorry then. And I have a cycle, I try to have at least 5 going in the same direction, it make it more efficient :p

And max demand is +40. If you buy the demand increase in the shop, demand can go above/below max, but as soon as prices change it will go back to +/-40

 
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Oh ok, that explains it. Will edit, thanks again =)

 
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Also does anyone have the % chance of the demand naturally changing with a reward claim? My old theory of every 10 minutes is clearly wrong, cause I just tested it. I figure I just had absurd “luck” getting it every 10 minutes before xD

 
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Max demand is indeed +40. Idk how you got to see +56 but that was either an earlier version, a bug, or anything.

A small point, the demand is equal to how much the buy price of the gem has changed on the last update. A lvl 2 gem at buy price 2384 with demand +35 means that the buy price was 2349 before the last update.

Another small point you might want to include, the profit number only applies to the last bought gem. If you buy a gem at 4000 GC (3760 sell price), profit states -240. Now wait for the price to reach 6000 GC (5640 sell price), the profit states +1880. Now buy a gem at this price of 6000 GC and profit states -360 again where it should be (1880-360)/2=760.

I don’t agree with your buy and sell prices. first off they only include the gem prices and say nothing about demand. You do say a bit about how demand affects your buying and selling but demand is alot more important.
Personally I can buy any gem when its price is below 1500x its gem level, and sell any gem when its above 1500x its gem level.
However I strongly take the demand into account. I will only buy a gem at 1400x its gem lvl if it has a demand of roughly +20 or higher. This also depends on gem level.
Same goes for selling aswell.

As for statistics, there aren’t really any more to add. Formulas for how the prices change are unknown.

For the rest though, very nice tutorial. The images do wonders aswell.

EDIT: Chances for the LolMarket to update on a Progress Bar claim vary alot. I’ve seen several times where it took minutes to get one update, other times where it did 2 updates at once. This happens on both Idle mode and Anti-Idle mode, so I guess it’s using some random numbers.

 
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but what do you do if it is stuck at – demand/profit

 
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I personally hate math and statistics

You hate them because you didn’t give them a chance. They’re the most wonderful tools you can have, especially in situations like this

Formulas for how the prices change are unknown.

Not true

Chances for the LolMarket to update on a Progress Bar claim vary alot. I’ve seen several times where it took minutes to get one update, other times where it did 2 updates at once.

It’s not based on reward claim, it’s completely random

 
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Originally posted by duudez:

but what do you do if it is stuck at – demand/profit

if profit drops beyond the profit where you bought it, sell one gem, and buy again this one back (not more, if you havent bought all yet!), you will see that it also drops your overall-profit, but saves your ass, cuz you will see the negative deep-down-below-profit raises up to at least that point where you would have bought all the bunch of gems and so saves you from kinda “great depression” ( http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression ). ;-)

 
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I’ve never seen Level 1 gems go lower than ~700, and I almost always see Level 6 gems go all the way up to 12,000.
Also, the Level 5 gems also go all the way up to 10,000 pretty often. Might want to change those ones.

 
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I guess the major points to my strategy are:
1) If I think I can make a profit by selling and rebuying later, if they’re on a decrease, I sell.
2) If I think I can make a profit by buying and reselling later, if they’re low in price, I buy.
3) I treat going to sleep as a -40 demand indicator.

 
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@GeneralYouri: Thanks. I do agree with all of those things, I had some issues of thinking how to explain it. Kinda forgot a lot as I went too xD I’ll edit in the stuff you mencioned. Also didn’t know about the price-change thing, interesting =)
Edit: Do you mind checking if I explained it properly? Not sure I understood it right, just want to make sure it came out right =) Also I changed the description around methods and so, does it feel more demand-based now?
Oh and, just because;


I’m pretty sure it is as qlordz suggested cause I had +38 or so then I bought a type 2 and voila.

@Draconi: I hate math and everything around it because I had a math teacher in high school who spent three years pounding into every student that they suck and are unworthy of the brilliance of math. He intentionally tought us bad methods because he didn’t think we should get to know the good ones, and explained it just like that. So now when I see a formula I really just want to punch it :P I recently tried to get back into math by signing up for a class, and that teacher just kind of fed my hatred by deciding to do the book backwards because “the last chapter is much more interesting”. Maybe one day I’ll learn to not hate math, but for now I’ll do AI:TG math free xD

@Boligao: Lv 1 gems do go down to 500, I’ve seen it quite a bit. And I have also seen Lv 6 ones go up to 12k+, but thats rare and I deliberately tried to take numbers that are a little bit more generic and easy to come by. This is for “noobs” who want to learn to use the lolmarket, and only meant as a step on the way. Each person has to learn themselves what values they see the most and so on. And I’ve not actually seen a lv 5 one go that high, interesting =) Thanks either way for the input!

Chippi, can you explain what the question and answer is? Feels like a good thing to add into guide, but I didn’t really get it. What is it that happens? The demand/profit is locked and won’t change ever or wut?

 
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Here’s some stuff to feed your love for math, then

When the lolmarket rates update, all gems get price equal to current demand added. Then demand changes as follows

lv 1 gem: random value between -2 and 2
lv 2 gem: random value between -3 and 3
lv 3 gem: random value between -4 and 4
lv 4 gem: random value between -5 and 5
lv 5 gem: random value between -6 and 6
lv 6 gem: random value between -7 and 7

When you buy a control, it adds or removes a random value between 0 and 19 from each gem’s demand

 
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Originally posted by Draconi:

I personally hate math and statistics

You hate them because you didn’t give them a chance. They’re the most wonderful tools you can have, especially in situations like this

Formulas for how the prices change are unknown.

Not true

Chances for the LolMarket to update on a Progress Bar claim vary alot. I’ve seen several times where it took minutes to get one update, other times where it did 2 updates at once.

It’s not based on reward claim, it’s completely random

If formulas are known, mind sharing with us? I haven’t found them yet…
Also you say LolMarket updates are completely random, but do they ever occur without a Progress Bar being claimed? I’ve just ran a quick 15 min test for this, and the answer: no.
That means they must come on Progress Bar claims.
If/when they come, is somewhat random, as I said before. It is not however completely random. Nothing can ever be completely random.
Also, the way I’d program something like this would allow me to set the theoretically average chance to whatever I want.

Originally posted by woto:

@Boligao: Lv 1 gems do go down to 500, I’ve seen it quite a bit. And I have also seen Lv 6 ones go up to 12k+, but thats rare and I deliberately tried to take numbers that are a little bit more generic and easy to come by. This is for “noobs” who want to learn to use the lolmarket, and only meant as a step on the way. Each person has to learn themselves what values they see the most and so on. And I’ve not actually seen a lv 5 one go that high, interesting =) Thanks either way for the input!

Chippi, can you explain what the question and answer is? Feels like a good thing to add into guide, but I didn’t really get it. What is it that happens? The demand/profit is locked and won’t change ever or wut?

The absolute minimum price for a lvl 1 gem is 500. Because of the way the prices fluctuate, chances of the price getting at 500 are extremely low, and it won’t ever get below 500. Therefore a number like 900 is alot more viable. Either way you should take the minima and maxima in account when coming up with these buy/sell prices.

Glad my previous post was helpful. If you need me to clarify anything, lemme know here or by PM.

EDIT: After running some tests it seems like I’m getting an average of 19 LolMarket updates every 1900 seconds on Idle Mode. My Idle Bar needed 5 seconds to fill at 1000% Boosts, thus this means that I got 1 LolMarket update every 20 Idle Mode bar fills.

That would mean the basic formula was like this:
$randNumber = rand(0,19);
if ($randNumber == 18) { [Update LolMarket] }
The number 18 can be any number 0-19.

 
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Originally posted by Draconi:

Here’s some stuff to feed your love for math, then

When the lolmarket rates update, all gems get price equal to current demand added. Then demand changes as follows

lv 1 gem: random value between -2 and 2
lv 2 gem: random value between -3 and 3
lv 3 gem: random value between -4 and 4
lv 4 gem: random value between -5 and 5
lv 5 gem: random value between -6 and 6
lv 6 gem: random value between -7 and 7

When you buy a control, it adds or removes a random value between 0 and 19 from each gem’s demand

Wow, this is really helpful.

 
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It goes all the way up to 10k pretty often, I guess you were really unlucky to never have seen it do that. It does that since when I first bought it.

 
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Also you say LolMarket updates are completely random, but do they ever occur without a Progress Bar being claimed? I’ve just ran a quick 15 min test for this, and the answer: no.

Probably you were just unlucky, before I made the post above I double checked and got 3 lolmarket updates without claiming a reward

If/when they come, is somewhat random, as I said before. It is not however completely random. Nothing can ever be completely random. Also, the way I’d program something like this would allow me to set the theoretically average chance to whatever I want.

It’s as random as the RNG can get

 
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Originally posted by Draconi:

Here’s some stuff to feed your love for math, then

When the lolmarket rates update, all gems get price equal to current demand added. Then demand changes as follows

When the lolmarket rates update, demand changes as seen below. Then all gems get price equal to current demand added.

lv 1 gem: random value between -2 and 2
lv 2 gem: random value between -3 and 3
lv 3 gem: random value between -4 and 4
lv 4 gem: random value between -5 and 5
lv 5 gem: random value between -6 and 6
lv 6 gem: random value between -7 and 7

When you buy a control, it adds or removes a random value between 0 and 19 from each gem’s demand

The striked through line is incorrect. The bold below there is correct, I have tested this several times.
Also if I consider the rest of the rules you stated…
First I am assuming that LolMarket Control will be able to increase/decrease price with any amount, as long as the old amount is within the -40 to +40 range.
(This behavior is also seen on for example Mystery Rate, the limit is 100 but if ur at 99 and get +2, it reaches 101.)
The logical demand range when using LolMarket Control is -58 to +58.
The range without using LolMarket Control however is still -40 to +40.

I think this is very much worth noting in this tutorial.
It seems that you have correctly added parts of my post into your tutorial, I’ve got 2 things left that I want to see changed:
- The sell price of gems is 94% of its buy price. Make sure to use this rule (and a pc calculator if u need to) throughout your tutorial to avoid confusion. So don’t use example with buy price at 1000 and sell price at 800 since that is impossible.
- Update the image with the buy/sell guidelines. 500 is impossible. Other amounts are also stretched. Also include demand rates to vary the buy/sell guidelines.

 
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<del>Crossed text</del>
Just like this :)

 
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Damn you keep posting new stuff right before I post XD
Anyways…

Originally posted by Draconi:

Also you say LolMarket updates are completely random, but do they ever occur without a Progress Bar being claimed? I’ve just ran a quick 15 min test for this, and the answer: no.

Probably you were just unlucky, before I made the post above I double checked and got 3 lolmarket updates without claiming a reward

If/when they come, is somewhat random, as I said before. It is not however completely random. Nothing can ever be completely random. Also, the way I’d program something like this would allow me to set the theoretically average chance to whatever I want.

It’s as random as the RNG can get

I have been testing LolMarket for about 2-3 hours before this. During all that time, updates rarely took more than 5 minutes. Then I change to Anti-Idle mode and don’t claim any rewards, and it doesn’t update for over 15 minutes.
That can’t be bad luck. What did u do when you got those three updates? You probably had something running ingame that gave you Progress Bar increments, like the Battle Arena…

For the randomness I’ll wait what you’ve got to say about the few lines I wrote for that.

EDIT: Thanks for that Boligao, I didn’t notice the plain HTML tags didn’t work. I wonder why they make some tags work and others not…

 
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The striked through line is incorrect. The bold below there is correct, I have tested this several times.

Yeah, I changed the order for some reason, my mistake

The logical demand range when using LolMarket Control is -58 to +58.
The range without using LolMarket Control however is still -40 to +40.

Sorry, doesn’t work that way. If demand is higher than 40 or lower than -40 it’s reset to the cap. Mystery points can go up to 101 because there isn’t reset check like that, it just doesn’t let it go up if it is >= 100

 
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Originally posted by Draconi:

The logical demand range when using LolMarket Control is -58 to +58.
The range without using LolMarket Control however is still -40 to +40.

Sorry, doesn’t work that way. If demand is higher than 40 or lower than -40 it’s reset to the cap. Mystery points can go up to 101 because there isn’t reset check like that, it just doesn’t let it go up if it is >= 100

Look at the image posted by woto earlier. He has +54 and +52. If it really does check and reset to -40 or +40, then that wouldn’t be possible.

 
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What did u do when you got those three updates? You probably had something running ingame that gave you Progress Bar increments, like the Battle Arena…

I had it waiting in shop screen