Forums Tyrant

Card "Blacklist?" page 3

178 posts

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peace-out

 
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But hey, to reword Magenta’s analysis, if the odds of receiving each card is equal, then roughly 14 people in 10000 “should” be missing Atlas, Tiamat, and the EMP after opening 60 packs, regardless of what’s waiting in pack 61. Given that Tyrant’s got 2.6 million plays just on Kongregate and probably many times that on Facebook, Icrine’s “bad luck” frankly doesn’t surprise me at all. Heck, millions of people in the USA spend billions of dollars a year hoping that odds far worse than 0.14% will turn up in their favor: it’s called the lottery. =P

 
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Originally posted by gelatinemonkey:

@Yesplz
If you want so picky about others, then clearly you don’t understand the term “random” when it comes to coding. There is NO WAY to COMPLETELY be random in coding. Since everything in your computer is through logic and bits which are 1s and 0s, the best you can do is simulate it.

This discussion has been going on for thirty years. The arguments that you applied IN CAPS to computers apply equally well to most things that you might try to claim are random that are not — especially physically rolling a die or shuffling a deck. I saw a talk by Persi Diaconis, who taught himself how to flip a quarter to usually come up heads.

Would it be acceptable if the designers physically rolled a die to see which rare you got each time? I doubt a physical die could generate 10^10 outcomes without revealing a predictable bias. Meanwhile many of the pseudo-random generators can generate 10^100 random numbers that resist statistical analysis of correlation. Because a computerized oven can accurately measure temperature to the millionth of a degree, we demand that our bread be cooked exactly within a millionth of a degree. Yet at home we just stick it in the toaster and don’t complain, because it tastes the same.

This argument should not be about (pseudo-) random number generators, except perhaps to ask, “Are they using a reasonably reliable random number generator?” and “Are they calling the random number generator correctly?”

There is a separate argument about hiding game mechanics behind a black box. The game rolls a die behind a screen, and says to you: “Congratulations! You got your fifth Mend Wounds!” You don’t have any EMPs, so you feel cheated. Are the game designers purposely holding back key cards to try to bilk more money out of the players? That seems risky; we might be able to test something like that by taking a player census. If its all about EMP or Rally Flag or Asylum or something, the designers would get a better outcome (without risking getting caught cheating) by simply upping the rarity on those cards.

This same issue arose with the 25 Warbuck crates - which, as near as I can tell, are no longer available.

I don’t double check the produce scales at my grocery store, or the weight of my breakfast cereal, or the volume flow at the gas pump, or the thread count on my sheets. Should I worry about the reward system in a flash game?

 
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@Broken

Perhaps I’m just playing a bit of devil’s advocate. I totally agree with you, and I don’t think they’re holding cards back on purpose. Hmm, I guess I posted to try and debunk the idea of it simply “always being random, and always being an exactly equal chance.” The idea of uniform chance within “randomness” is…. well at least in my opinion… impossible, lol. There will always be a bias, though making it smaller seems to be our goal, then, I guess. “Random” cannot occur so long as there are inputs into a system, for they will always change it, and almost always predictably. I think the only way for ANYTHING to be “random” is to be self-sufficient within itself. There’s some dogma (or whatever you wanna call it) to wade through.

So yeah, I don’t think there’s anything hidden, but I think it’d be nice if we knew how they went about doing it so we could respond accordingly to try and maximize our chance for success. I’m not asking for a “handout”, but if you’re trying to play roulette thinking high numbers net you more money, then it may end up deterring you from doing “better.” Not winning every time, but better because you’re not handicapping yourself.

As another side note, bought 2 more packs in succession today, got another plague duster (2 now), and a new legendary (Apex). I also hit one of the common cards I didn’t have previously (down to 3 missing). I’m just giving card info to try and add more data to the heap to sort through.

 
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Heres a fun fact about computer RNG algorithms

at the time when bridge players were converting from using real cards, to being played online, there were complaints that the computer’s shuffles produced different results in draws, than from using real cards. Bridge players were unable to say what the difference was (actually i think they did, but i forgot what the complaint was, exactly), but it was a common complaint among them. a study was conducted, to find out if this was true.

Now, it turns out, that the computer’s shuffles DID produce different draws, than from using real cards. This is because, the average bridge player shuffled the bridge deck only roughly 5 times, before distributing the cards. It was also discovered, that merely shuffling 5 times, did not produce true random results for card distribution. Apparently you need to shuffle 7 times or more.

The computer’s shuffles didnt match real shuffles, because they were MORE random.

Just an interesting fact, about how players have always disputed RNG algorithms to whine.

 
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Well i feel like tyrant isn’t shuffling the full 7 times.

 
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oh! the shuffle ruffle!

 
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there is no true randomness

 
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I’ve opened a total of five xeno motherships. I’m not happy about this.

 
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Originally posted by BrokenFixer:

I don’t double check the produce scales at my grocery store, or the weight of my breakfast cereal, or the volume flow at the gas pump, or the thread count on my sheets. Should I worry about the reward system in a flash game?

Will you be my internet friend?

 
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7 command center, 7 sabre , 6 xeno mothership here………../_\…………

 
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Originally posted by wily001:

7 command center, 7 sabre , 6 xeno mothership here………../_\…………

did that happen opening 20 packs in a row or just over the time you have been playing?

 
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was 105/111 or so. saved up 30k and opened 6 packs in a roll. got 3 rares i needed in a roll. i’ll definitely do that again.

 
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Originally posted by clchan:

was 105/111 or so. saved up 30k and opened 6 packs in a roll. got 3 rares i needed in a roll. i’ll definitely do that again.

Yeah doing that too myself. saving all the gold from my last 4 achieves remaining (Honored achieve for 4 first factions)

Sitting at 105/111 for ages now (EMP, CommCenter, Enclave Champ, Nimbus missing), buying 12-13 packs in a row can only be fun. I dread the odds not to get any of them 4 =|

Edit: If my math is there, odds of not getting any of those 4 (among 29 possible rares/legendarys) are 25/29 in a single pack.

in 12 packs: (25/29)^12 = 0.16846 …… (16.85%)
in 13 packs: (25/29)^13 = 0.14522 …… (14.52%)
in 15 packs (25/29)^15 = 0.10792 …… (10.79%)
In 20 packs: (5.14%)

I am liking these odds less than the 50% regen that regens more than 50%

 
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Originally posted by DWarrior:

this thread is just full of idiots.

Originally posted by icrine:

To be honest, I don’t think its random. I think there’s a card sequence being run through and the time you click the “buy” button, it gives you that card, and the sequence resets every ??? minutes. I say this because somebody I know who saved 300k bought gold packs all in one row and got 8 EMPs. It can’t possibly be a pure random number generator…

That’s 8 EMPs out of 60 packs.

0 EMP’s from 40 packs so far.. am i meant to get the 8 EMP’s from the next 20?

 
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Originally posted by Crusader32:
Originally posted by DWarrior:

this thread is just full of idiots.

Originally posted by icrine:

To be honest, I don’t think its random. I think there’s a card sequence being run through and the time you click the “buy” button, it gives you that card, and the sequence resets every ??? minutes. I say this because somebody I know who saved 300k bought gold packs all in one row and got 8 EMPs. It can’t possibly be a pure random number generator…

That’s 8 EMPs out of 60 packs.

His post was stating that there are streaks. He used a specific example with a friend getting 8 EMPs in 60 packs, which is statistically HIGHLY improbable if randomization is done correctly; and of course if the story is true.

Your statement sounds like a lil child. Did you buy your 40 packs in a row? If so, did you notice any “streaks” (multiples of the same rare/etc)? If you didn’t buy them in a row, then this hardly even applies.

0 EMP’s from 40 packs so far.. am i meant to get the 8 EMP’s from the next 20?

 
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for me its daemon………
just to illustrate i dont count gold packs anymore….. i just save gold then buy many at once
so i just giggle at all the daemon spam decks out there….

also to split the community, the blacklist card is different for each player….
also when you would have gotten blacklist card you instead get your surplus card…… for me its apex, I have 10 now

 
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Originally posted by NicolBolas:

also to split the community, the blacklist card is different for each player….
also when you would have gotten blacklist card you instead get your surplus card…… for me its apex, I have 10 now

This is how it is generally done, yes. Also, the odds of getting a card are weighted towards the cards you already have, especially with uniques and legendaries, which is why you usually get scads of the damn things: The game knows it can give you another one because you can’t use it anyway. It’s a very common method developers (and DMs) use to control power levels: Disguise it as a random event, then manipulate it behind the screen to favor the result the developer wants. Notice how there is no transparency here: It is all hidden where you can’t see what’s going on for a reason.
 
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Originally posted by NicolBolas:

also to split the community, the blacklist card is different for each player….
also when you would have gotten blacklist card you instead get your surplus card…… for me its apex, I have 10 now

There is no such thing as a “blacklist” card.

All of this is just a comical mixture of confirmation bias and conspiracy theories.

 
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Originally posted by PescadoJM:
Originally posted by NicolBolas:

also to split the community, the blacklist card is different for each player….
also when you would have gotten blacklist card you instead get your surplus card…… for me its apex, I have 10 now

This is how it is generally done, yes. Also, the odds of getting a card are weighted towards the cards you already have, especially with uniques and legendaries, which is why you usually get scads of the damn things: The game knows it can give you another one because you can’t use it anyway. It’s a very common method developers (and DMs) use to control power levels: Disguise it as a random event, then manipulate it behind the screen to favor the result the developer wants. Notice how there is no transparency here: It is all hidden where you can’t see what’s going on for a reason.

+1
 
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i got 3 electro magnetic pulse in a row :D

 
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There is no blacklist. I have full Standard and Enclave on FB, all drawn from packs (no elite shop purchases).

People like to think the RNG is flawed or the devs are screwing them to explain what is just “bad luck” (read: probability). If this was like 2000 years ago, you’d be sacrificing your virgin daughter to ensure the harvest. Couple hundred and you’d be blaming the local eccentric and burning the witch at the stake.

It is what it is. Stop whining and open more packs.

 
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Originally posted by dr_koala:

There is no blacklist. I have full Standard and Enclave on FB, all drawn from packs (no elite shop purchases).

People like to think the RNG is flawed or the devs are screwing them to explain what is just “bad luck” (read: probability). If this was like 2000 years ago, you’d be sacrificing your virgin daughter to ensure the harvest. Couple hundred and you’d be blaming the local eccentric and burning the witch at the stake.

It is what it is. Stop whining and open more packs.

no, there is most certainly some sort of randomness manipulation going on here. and im saying this as someone who has all standard from packs.

 
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Originally posted by Pushead:

no, there is most certainly some sort of randomness manipulation going on here. and im saying this as someone who has all standard from packs.

Prove it. Also, explain why.

 
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Originally posted by ZeGuitarist:

Prove it. Also, explain why.

Proving this would require hacking the server and stealing the server application. This is precisely why it is done that way: So that you can’t prove it. In fact, every possible method of analyzing the problem in a way which will produce definitive proof has been deliberately blocked by various mechanisms. It’s really a very thorough job. As for why? That is quite obvious: If players cannot get the cards they want, they will be forced to WB for them. This then unlocks them. Admittedly, no profit motivation is necessarily REQUIRED, since programmers are bastards and enjoy watching you suffer, but throw in a profit motivation and it becomes clear that this is the case.