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I have a question about how the percentage chance works for excavations. I see that I have a 35% chance at faction coins. I also show two eligible Lore Artifacts at 30% and 22%.
As I see it I should have, very roughly, a one in four chance for the first artifact and one in five for the other. I have done thirty (give or take) excavations and only get coins.
Do the game’s mechanics calculate all eligible outcomes simultaneously or do they calculate each outcome separately? Is the chance to get nothing calculated as a separate variable?
I’m not a math guy, so please dumb down your answers if you can.


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> *Originally posted by **[Gothinsky](/forums/8945/topics/1848325?page=1#13192203)**:*
> I have a question about how the percentage chance works for excavations. I see that I have a 35% chance at faction coins. I also show two eligible Lore Artifacts at 30% and 22%.
>
> As I see it I should have, very roughly, a one in four chance for the first artifact and one in five for the other. I have done thirty (give or take) excavations and only get coins.
>
> Do the game’s mechanics calculate all eligible outcomes simultaneously or do they calculate each outcome separately? Is the chance to get nothing calculated as a separate variable?
>
> I’m not a math guy, so please dumb down your answers if you can.
>
There's a little bit of both in there. Without math, it's hard to explain the details, but FCs will not impact your chance for artifacts. Multiple artifacts can impact each other (kind of), but ultimately, you can get one per excavation.
Let's say you have a 1 in 10 chance of artifact A, and 1 in 20 of artifact B. There is a 'priority' of which one is checked first. Let's say A is a higher priority on the internal list.
Excavate 1 time:
One number is selected  this is checked to see if you get artifact A.
One further number is selected  this is checked to see if you get artifact B.
Given the odds, you *should* have gotten at least one, *if you did the math right*. But *should* does not mean *will*, as you might get a reasonably long drought of values. Note that if you don't get it, and try to export your game before an excavate, import after, you're going to get the same results, as the list of 'random' numbers is going to remain the same from the excavations.
What artifacts are you trying to get, and what factors do you have that go into the percentages?


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Thanks for the insight.
The % chance I'm using is the one the game shows when I hover the mouse over the exclamation point in the red circle on the list of artifacts in the excavation sub screen.
I'm going for the Power Orb and the Devine Sword. Current Max Mana is 4670 and I've played Angel (no dwarf) 13 times in a row.
I know it is theoretically possible to excavate hundreds of times and not get anything with the same percentage chance, but I failed college statistics twice before I finally got a D. I thought there might be a variable I was missing that might weight the data.


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> *Originally posted by **[Gothinsky](/forums/8945/topics/1848325?page=1#13192231)**:*
> Thanks for the insight.
>
> The % chance I'm using is the one the game shows when I hover the mouse over the exclamation point in the red circle on the list of artifacts in the excavation sub screen.
>
> I'm going for the Power Orb and the Devine Sword. Current Max Mana is 4670 and I've played Angel (no dwarf) 13 times in a row.
>
> I know it is theoretically possible to excavate hundreds of times and not get anything with the same percentage chance, but I failed college statistics twice before I finally got a D. I thought there might be a variable I was missing that might weight the data.
So you're doing the math incorrectly (or something else is  the game doesn't show percentages for this, do they?).
(4670 / 15000)% = 0.4%, meaning that it's about a 1 in 250 chance.
(13 / 60)% = .217%, so about a 1 in 461 chance.
So the results (or lack thereof) are more than appropriate based on these percentages.


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My problem seems to be that I think of a 10% chance as being 1 in 10. (Dang You Math!!) This is why I did so poorly in STEM.
Thanks for your clarification.


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> *Originally posted by **[somarilnos](/forums/8945/topics/1848325?page=1#13192239)**:*
> So you're doing the math incorrectly (or something else is  the game doesn't show percentages for this, do they?).
The game does as of 3.6, but it should display the correct precentages.
> *Originally posted by **[Gothinsky](/forums/8945/topics/1848325?page=1#13192244)**:*
> My problem seems to be that I think of a 10% chance as being 1 in 10. (Dang You Math!!) This is why I did so poorly in STEM.
>
> Thanks for your clarification.
10% IS 1 in 10.


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So what I'm doing is missing the (decimal) point. 60 runs in a row would give 1% not 100%.
(60/60)% = (1)% = 1% NOT 60/60 = 1 = 100%
