The Monty Hall problem. page 4

78 posts

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Necro’d thread, please await lock.

 
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Originally posted by Helltank:

Necro’d thread, please await lock.

Then what is the point of admin asking posters to check to see if there is already a thread relative to their idea BEFORE they start their thread? So what if the thread is as old as dirt? Are you saying that a new person & their thoughts are to be limited to ONLY current discussion? What if they want to comment on something and it hasn’t been brought up for a long while? Where is the harm?

Either that thread gets some more attention—from ppl that weren’t around when it was active and/or those who were but now have more to add—or it doesn’t and is rotated downward to eventually exit from page 1…which typically means that it will be even less likely to once again become current discussion.

Lighten up, Helltank. We could use some more posters in SD. Even if they are (appear to be) alts. The post itself was relative.

 
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Originally posted by tjmoncek:

If you oppose my argument, please hear me out first. I understand the explanation, but I also understand that it is incorrect. You only ever had a 2/3 chance of having a goat when there were 2 goats to have and 3 doors to have them. But after a door is opened, there is 1 goat to have and only 2 doors that may have them. As to the diagram, that is considering games that we know didn’t happen. Look only at the games where the 2nd door was opened. It is 1/2, right? So if you play a game in which that door is opened, your chances are 1/2. That applies to the other door as well.

You’re forgetting your initial choice, in which 1 out of 3 times, you will have selected the car. This means that if you do not switch, you still have a 33% chance of being right. Switching then means that, 2 out of 3 times, you initially selected a goat and will now be switching to a car. At no point do you ever have a 50/50 shot at anything.