Topic: Forum Games /
Dangerous Doors (Round Four)
An Outcome is likely if the probability is greater than 99%. I can logically conclude that an Outcome will not happen if it is not likely. Outcome 1 has ~6.67% of having the monster, as well as Outcome 2, Outcome 3, and so on. Therefore none of the Outcomes from 1 to 15 will contain the monster. However, the probability that one of the fifteen Outcomes has the monster is 100%. Therefore at least one of the Outcomes will contain the monster but none of the Outcomes will contain the monster. Therefore I should pick number 9.