Recent posts by Lebossle on Kongregate

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Topic: Forum Games / Mafia (confirmed: 5/13)

Originally posted by Helltank:

Confirm

Just to get the ball rolling, what do you guys think of the setup?

IMO it’s a nice prisoner’s dilemna for mafia. If I’m a townie and I’m stronk and scumhunting the mafia aren’t sure whether to target me in case they cancel each other out. But if they both don’t I’m safe anyway. Assuming the mafia want to kill a townie:

1. both target him (no death)
2. both don’t target him (no death)
3. one targets him one doesnt (death)

Which means that every time the mafia set their sights on a particularly strong or scumhunting player(ahem), they only have a 1/3rd chance of actually killing him. Plus the fact that they’re likely to fail may mean they might abandon the effort and target “softer” townies instead, essentially making that townie pseudo-bulletproof. Plus the mafia usually trip over each other in cross faction games.

CONCLUSION: Town have a strong advantage if they can coordinate and stop the mafia from doing so.

Your math is bad. The chance of mafia killing someone is (p1+p2-2*p1*p2)(1-pd), where p1 and p2 are the probabilities each of the mafias target him, and pd the chance the doctor targets him. That is 2*p*(1-p)(1-pd) if you assume p1=p2=p. If both mafia coordinated, their power would be around 2p*(1-pd), so all the setup does is scale down scum power by (1-p).
If there is someone REALLY on the spotlight, p=1/2, the chance of him getting killed is (1-pd)*2*1/2*1/2=(1-pd)/2, not 1/3.

Btw, the reason your math is bad is because 1)you’re assuming some probability to reach those 1/3, but you’re obviously just guessing a wrong probability just because it lets you do math. 2)If I flip two coins, even though you can get heads-heads, tails-tails, or heads-tails, the chance of getting heads-tails is 1/2, not 1/3.

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Mafia (confirmed: 5/13)

Confirm

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Majora's Mask Mafia INTEREST CHECK

Interested

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Canyon Crossfire - Day 4: Enter the Darkness (DL 4/27, 4 PM, UTC+3)

Well dj, there’s no point lynching inactive people anyway, since that would be the same as no-lynching.

I also think we should use our time better than just promptly jumping into a lynch, specially since we know we’re getting more activity than usual.

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Majority Rules: A Social Experiment | ACTIVITY CHECK

Confirm.

I love how only 1 person that contacted me had my color.

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Majority Rules: A Social Experiment | ACTIVITY CHECK

Suure, that’s why it’s used internationally as a secure hash.

But yeah, don’t forget to salt it, otherwise indeed it would be easy to decode (just use a brute force attack).

 
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Topic: Forum Games / {Competition} Sunday π -- Minigame 15: Bestest Minigame II || Need Replacements!

So, we could either make a deal so everyone sends the same choices, or we all go randomly. However, since there are someone dishonest people around and nobody know if they’re going to be on your team or not, I think we’ll have to go randomly this round.

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Canyon Crossfire - Day 4: Enter the Darkness (DL 4/27, 4 PM, UTC+3)

1) I think it’s because he was active, I can’t see much of a point other than that.
2) I can see absolutely no reason. Definately a random lynch, maybe someone with a grudge, but I don’t think that would be fair game.
3 and 4) I don’t think there is anyone standing out right now, everyone seems to be following their meta or are inactive.

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Canyon Crossfire - Day 4: Enter the Darkness (DL 4/27, 4 PM, UTC+3)

Confirm replacement

 
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Topic: Forum Games / {Competition} Sunday π -- Minigame 15: Bestest Minigame II || Need Replacements!

What… The… Hell…

If you scale 100 to 69, the previous 2/3 the average we got was 18. Wtf.

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Mafia (confirmed: 5/13)

Sign

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Canyon Crossfire - Day 4: Enter the Darkness (DL 4/27, 4 PM, UTC+3)

Reserve Sign

 
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Topic: Forum Games / [Round 4]Half the Average [Again.]

Sign

 
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Topic: Forum Games / {Competition} Sunday π -- Minigame 15: Bestest Minigame II || Need Replacements!

Why 30? Why not something like 20, so that even if someone goes lower he won’t screw everyone up?

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Majority Rules: A Social Experiment | ACTIVITY CHECK

[Vote: Helltank]

Interesting how some people don’t get how annoying faking stupidity is.

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Majority Rules: A Social Experiment | ACTIVITY CHECK

I’m confused. This game is hard.

 
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Topic: Forum Games / {Competition} Sunday π -- Minigame 15: Bestest Minigame II || Need Replacements!

How much is inactivity? 69?

 
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Topic: Forum Games / {Competition} Sunday π -- Minigame 15: Bestest Minigame II || Need Replacements!

Aww, puzzle, why did you not answer my PM? I thought you were inactive!

 
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Topic: Forum Games / {Competition} Sunday π -- Minigame 15: Bestest Minigame II || Need Replacements!

Note the date, if it wasn’t obvious already.

 
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Topic: Forum Games / {Competition} Sunday π -- Minigame 15: Bestest Minigame II || Need Replacements!

OMG, you guys cannot be serious. Sending both 100 is obviously NOT what ANYONE is going to do.

 
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Topic: Kongregate / Post Your Wins.

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Majority Rules: A Social Experiment | ACTIVITY CHECK

We know that people won’t falseclaim because it’s bad to their team (as I thought I made clear on my previous analysis).

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Majority Rules: A Social Experiment | ACTIVITY CHECK

Originally posted by Xandrya:
Originally posted by MysteriousPanzer:

Now for strategy. Who’s been sneaky in past forum games? Someone who can’t be trusted?

Let’s try this.

I don’t think meta applies here.

What about everyone mass claim, or at least one from each team since votes are public, so everyone basically claims a team with their vote. Then the claimed teams choose someone randomly from the other team, publicly, and anyone that doesn’t vote for that person is considered a traitor and targeted for next round’s killing. That goes until only one claimed team is left, then you just choose someone randomly to kill every round there. I think the team that false-claims the least wins then, am I right?

 
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Topic: Forum Games / Majority Rules: A Social Experiment | ACTIVITY CHECK

What happens in a tie? Also, are votes secret?

 
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Topic: Forum Games / {Competition} Sunday π -- Minigame 15: Bestest Minigame II || Need Replacements!

Wow, I’m usually very unlucky on these 50-50 chance games, good thing I do well on them now and then.

Oh god, this prisoner’s dillemma is a b****. DAZ, can you tell us if you’re going to try to screw Woon up or not? Maybe by PM, idk. Also, Behe, I’m up for discussion. (Goddammit, I’m paired up with the other volunteer, so that’s no argument)