Topic: Forum Games: Forum Games /
Variable Votes Double Dethy [Day 4]
10crystalmask01 – sarothat (Innocent), Precarious (Innocent), qwertyuiopazs (Innocent)
back900 – Precarious (Guilty)
djrockstar – Self (Innocent), Precarious (Innocent), Kuzco12 (Guilty)
sarothat410 – Gonkeymonkey (Innocent), qwertyuiopazs (Innocent)
Louweed – Precarious (Guilty), back900 (Guilty), djrockstar (Guilty)
Precarious – sarothat410 (Guilty), 10crystalmask01 (Guilty), Gonkeymonkey (Guilty)
qwertyuiopazs/hamuka – Precarious (Guilty), Gonkeymonkey (Guilty)
Gonkeymonkey – Precarious (Innocent), Self (Innocent), sarothat410 (Innocent)
Kuzco12 – Gonkeymonkey (Guilty), sarothat410 (Guilty), 10crystalmask01 (Guilty)
Jouteur – back900 (Guilty), qwertyuiopazs (Guilty), Kuzco (Innocent)
General thoughts: There are two sane, two insane, two paranoid, and two naive cops, as well as two mafia. That means there are four players (two sane cops and two insane cops) whose investigations are necessarily determinative: their results tell us who is a cop and who is a mafia. Investigations by paranoid and naive cops cannot separate between cop and mafia, so their only use is to piece together the larger picture. The mafia can choose to do whatever they want, and so can function as any type of cop, or even report contradictory results.
This obviously places a premium on sane and insane results. While ideally such players determine their mental state and then investigate mafia, even investigated cops are useful, because that (1) eliminates those players as possible mafia, and (2) in confirming their cop status (and thus the good faith results of their investigations), it contextualizes the game, allowing us to extrapolate possible combinations. If we determine, for example, that three players must be insane, then one of those players must actually be a mafia.
We have enough results now to begin making some determinations, but additional nights of investigation will obviously clarify further. So long as dj is telling the truth (and lying would be incomprehensible, since the mafia are not allied with each other, so inserting oneself into a dichotomy pre-end game is a guaranteed loss), we’ll also only have to deal with one kill per night, which means a higher number of investigations will make it through.
Crystal can be sane, naive, or mafia. He cannot be paranoid, as he returned innocent results, and he cannot be insane, as he returned innocent results on two nightkilled players (necessarily cops).
djrockstar can be sane or mafia. He can be neither naive nor paranoid, as he returned both types of results, and cannot be insane, as his self-investigation matches his claimed cop-status.
LouWeed can be insane, paranoid, or mafia. He cannot be naive, as he has returned all guilty results. He cannot be sane, as he has returned three guilty results (sane can have no more than two), and has returned a guilty on back (confirmed cop).
Precarious can be insane, paranoid or mafia. I cannot be naive, as I have returned Guilty results, and I cannot be sane, as I have returned three Guilty results (a sane cop can return no more than two Guilty results, as there are only two mafia). While I am not completely cleared, I am unlikely to be mafia (details below).
Gonkeymonkey can be sane, naive, or mafia. He has returned all innocent results, and therefore cannot be paranoid. He has returned an Innocent on sarothat (confirmed cop via being nightkilled), which is accurate; he can therefore not be insane.
Kuzco12 can be insane, paranoid, or mafia. He has returned all guilty results, and therefore cannot be naive. He has returned a guilty result on sarothat (guaranteed cop), and therefore cannot be sane. Obviously, given dj’s testimony, he is most likely mafia. In the event this is the case, his results can be more or less discarded, as they were not made in good faith (and thus extrapolating from them is dangerous). If he turns out to be innocent, then he would fit into the puzzle as insane or paranoid. I’m a little surprised he hasn’t addressed dj’s investigation at all.
Jouteur can be insane or mafia. He has returned both innocent and guilty results, and therefore can be neither paranoid nor naive. He has returned guilty results on back (cop) and qwerty (cop), and therefore cannot be sane. If he is a cop, then Kuzco must be guilty. If he is a mafia, then obviously his results are contaminated by bad faith.
We have identified at least one mafia. Two players have implicated Kuzco. Even if dj or Jouteur was a mafia making an inexplicable gambit, it remains that the other also implicated Kuzco. The only way, therefore, that Kuzco could be innocent is if the two mafia are dj and Jouteur (since both would have contradictory results if Kuzco flips innocent). As this would be suicidal by both of them, Kuzco is virtually certain to be mafia.
If Kuzco flips mafia, this clears neither dj or Jouteur, as they could have adopted the persona of a sane or insane cop to control the town (the mafia know who each other are, and therefore know everyone’s alignment, allowing them to perfectly imitate any mental state as desired). However, given that fingering the other mafia is slightly game-breaking, I’m inclined to suspect both are actually cops. I’ll think about it some more.
I am not confirmed innocent, but trending in that direction. That I am close to innocent embodies a goal of the whole logical process—the idea is that we will continue to hone in on player alignments with further results, so that we can determine mafia by process of elimination even if we don’t land sane/insane investigations on mafia.
In my case, dj noted me as innocent. As previously stated, he must be either sane or mafia. If sane, his innocent result on me is determinative, and I am innocent. If mafia, it can be discarded, and I am not cleared. Other investigations also favor my innocence, but as long as they are tied up in potential paranoias or naiveties, they are not yet dispositive.
With further extrapolation, we may be able to get closer to the truth. For example, before being killed, saro returned two innocent results. If naive, they mean nothing, but if sane, they clear both players (saro cannot be insane, as qwerty/hamuka was reported innocent).
I’ll look more closely at the existing investigations and see if there is anything determinative that I haven’t deduced yet. I’m planning on, at minimum, a post that looks at the possible mental states of all players (including the deceased), which may turn up exonerating evidence and/or mafia pools, depending on how large each group is.
For now, our best option is obviously to examine the voting information we have, then lynch Kuzco. We may also need to discuss vote allocation at night—the fact that Kuzco has 5 votes (or control with as few as one other player) is alarming. Ideally, votes should be distributed so that no two players can achieve half. This would take further collective consideration though.