I am getting tired of being told that I have 90 percent chance of sneaking a tile and getting detected INSTANTLY!!!!! in room after room. Just give us correct sneaking percentage numbers. I don't mind if the sneak chance is 50, 30 or even 10 percent, just give us the right numbers , PLEASE!!!!!!!!

Ah... the statistical odds versus the human perception. I believe in all honestly, the odds of successfully sneaking is 90% (plus any penaly for moving next to each additional monster). However, that does not mean every 10th move. What it means is that you basically roll a d10, and on a 1 you fail to sneak. This can happen in streaks of any number; because every individual roll is, individually at a 10% chance of failure. What it really means is that over a very large number of sneak attempts, it will average to about 10% chance of failures. On the flip side, you could have a game where you were never detected. However, you would probably not notice this, since good results tend to be less memorable than bad ones - it's all the human psyche.

I think my main concern was sneaking in Dragons Lair. You are supposed to be able to sneak on 90 percent single tile and 80 percent on elf leaps. In all honesty my latest 30 games I havent gone further than 3 tiles and all too often just made one. With a little luck, once in a while, with current percentage numbers you should easily sneak 5-6 tiles get your item and make it out safe but that never happens. I don't even bother anymore unless I have 2-3 hide spells available. If anyone care to experiment sneaking around in Dragons Lair , be my guest. Or I just have to face fact that i am extremely unlucky.

I had a heroic bout (just once!) of sneaking all the way into the second dragon's lair, getting both chests inside, and returning unseen. Anyway, there's nothing stopping you from recording some statistics to prove that the odds are wrong. You'd just have to do it in a verifiable way (over a livestream?) and your [sample size](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination#Estimation_of_a_proportion) should be at least 6 sneaks onto empty tiles if you believe the chance is ≤50% and at least 100 if you believe it's ≤80%. To counter the effects of publication bias, I'd even suggest you raise those to 8 and 130. And of course, sneaks in tunnels with only slimes do not count.

> *Originally posted by **[Lucullusmaximus](/forums/979845/topics/1789968?page=1#12989919)**:* > I think my main concern was sneaking in Dragons Lair. You are supposed to be able to sneak on 90 percent single tile and 80 percent on elf leaps. In all honesty my latest 30 games I havent gone further than 3 tiles and all too often just made one. With a little luck, once in a while, with current percentage numbers you should easily sneak 5-6 tiles get your item and make it out safe but that never happens. I don't even bother anymore unless I have 2-3 hide spells available. If anyone care to experiment sneaking around in Dragons Lair , be my guest. Or I just have to face fact that i am extremely unlucky. Just to check -- you're not going next to any dragons at all? There chance of staying unseen drops by 10% per dragon you're next to. Assuming you're not adjacent to any dragons, the chances of making it to 5 tiles unseen should be < 60%.

> *Originally posted by **[Lucullusmaximus](/forums/979845/topics/1789968?page=1#12989919)**:* > I think my main concern was sneaking in Dragons Lair... I would still argue for perception vs actual odds. It may be more likely a success is less memorable, but a failure is spectacular; especially if you are left in the midst of dragons.Unless, like ***[unekdoud]***, you have this epic sneak to grab equipment before returning to slay. As he stated also, if you intend to prove your claim, you unfortunately need to do a very large sample size and note each sneak hex move attempted and the success/failure, to map out and determine the actual result. Unlike his comment about 6 sneaks etc. I would think it does not matter. Each success is a success, each fail is a fail. This applies even if you simply move between 2 hexes, and applies across any game you may deem to collect data from. We should be looking at 1000 or more sneak walks (sneak jumps of the Elven Huntress would need to be tabulated separately since they have a different success rate). As noted, there should be no difference between the Dragon's Lair and any other maps (so sneak data should apply across all), but if you want to prove a case, you could separate the data and keep track of all of them. > *Originally posted by **[arghness](/forums/979845/topics/1789968?page=1#12990472)**:* > Just to check -- you're not going next to any dragons at all? There chance of staying unseen drops by 10% per dragon you're next to. Assuming you're not adjacent to any dragons, the chances of making it to 5 tiles unseen should be < 60%. Only if the dragons are awake (which means using Vanish scrolls); as with all other monsters which are awake in the rest of the map. Sleeping dragons should not impose the 10% adjacent penalty to sneaking. BTW, I can't see your picture, but perchance your username is related to Argghhhh!! from Trollhunters?

> BTW, I can't see your picture, but perchance your username is related to Argghhhh!! from Trollhunters? No, sorry, my username (originally "argh") was out of frustration when trying to register for a website about 24 years ago, where every username I tried seemed to have already been taken, so I just typed "argh" and it accepted it. I then changed to "arghness" when in later years even "argh" was unavailable on some sites. Oh, and the picture is of an Alien from the film (or something looking like it). There was a game or promotion on Kongregate a while back that let you set your avatar to an alien or a marine from the game when you completed it, or something. I never bothered changing it again :)

> *Originally posted by **[arghness](/forums/979845/topics/1789968?page=1#12992654)**:* > > BTW, I can't see your picture, but perchance your username is related to Argghhhh!! from Trollhunters? > > No, sorry, my username (originally "argh") was out of frustration when trying to register for a website about 24 years ago, where every username I tried seemed to have already been taken, so I just typed "argh" and it accepted it. I then changed to "arghness" when in later years even "argh" was unavailable on some sites. Ha! Interesting! > Oh, and the picture is of an Alien from the film (or something looking like it). There was a game or promotion on Kongregate a while back that let you set your avatar to an alien or a marine from the game when you completed it, or something. I never bothered changing it again :) It just looks like some black armor from here.... me googles!

I have to retract my claims. It seems I had a bad streak sneaking for a while but guess what. Lately I have had a very lucky streak instead , never detected and never had to use any hide spells. Everything seems to be in order and you just have to wait until your bad luck runs out. Sorry for waisting everyones time. :-)

> *Originally posted by **[Lucullusmaximus](/forums/979845/topics/1789968?page=1#12993635)**:* > I have to retract my claims. It seems I had a bad streak sneaking for a while but guess what. Lately I have had a very lucky streak instead , never detected and never had to use any hide spells. Everything seems to be in order and you just have to wait until your bad luck runs out. Sorry for waisting everyones time. :-) Good for you! That's the thing about RNG, strict/true probability, and our human undertanding/perception of it. That's what makes it a Rogue-like!