# Hit/block probability tables (locked)

5 posts

 *October 22: fixed the edge case for elf block, updated trinkets* These tables display success probabilities rounded to the nearest 0.1%. For clarity, I use the word *block* instead of *miss* to refer to defense. To use, work out your stats with bonuses, and calculate *(your attack − enemy defense)* as W if you're attacking, or *(your defense − enemy attack)* as S if you're defending, then look it up below according to which die you're rolling. If you have a ~~reroll~~ protective trinket, look at [my reply below](https://www.kongregate.com/forums/979845-dungeoneers/topics/1797695-hit-block-probability-tables#posts-13049932). If you have a mithril vest, further multiply by 0.8! If a value isn't shown, its success or failure is guaranteed or depends only on the base dodge and uppercut chance. Note that rolling a 10 for riposte does not prevent you from getting hit. Feat chances aren't listed; you should be able to work them out easily. ##### Proficient (d12 vs d10) *Human melee, Elf ranged:* d12 + W ≥ d10 *Dwarf block:* d12 + S > d10 |W|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1|0 |- |S|+9|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1 |%|99.2|97.5|95|91.7|87.5|82.5|76.7|70|62.5 |W|−1|−2|−3|−4|−5|−6|−7|−8|−9|−10|−11 |- |S|0|−1|−2|−3|−4|−5|−6|−7|−8|−9|−10 |%|54.2|45.8|37.5|30|23.3|17.5|12.5|8.3|5|2.5|0.8 Resilience: Multiply by 85%, 70% if guarding. ##### Mediocre (d10 vs d10) *Elf melee, Dwarf melee:* d10 + W ≥ d10 *Human block:* d10 + S > d10 *Also applies to enemies attacking each other.* *Also applies to Bolt scroll damage.* U1 and U2 are the rates for dwarf's Uppercut I and II, which only replace misses. So for example, the W=0 column (equal attack and defense bonuses) means that there's a 55% chance to hit normally and an additional 6% chance to uppercut II, for a total of 61%. |W|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1|0 |- |S|+9|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1 |%|99|97|94|90|85|79|72|64|55 |+ |% U1||||||||1|3 |% U2|||||||1|3|6 |W|−1|−2|−3|−4|−5|−6|−7|−8|−9 |- |S|0|−1|−2|−3|−4|−5|−6|−7|−8 |%|45|36|28|21|15|10|6|3|1 |+ |% U1|6|9|12|15|18|21|24|27|29 |% U2|10|14|18|22|26|30|34|37|39 ##### Clumsy (d8 vs d10) *Human ranged, dwarf ranged:* d8 + W ≥ d10 |W|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1|0 |- |%|98.8|96.3|92.5|87.5|81.3|73.8|65|55|45 |W|−1|−2|−3|−4|−5|−6|−7 |- |%|35|26.3|18.8|12.5|7.5|3.8|1.3 *Elf block:* (d8+S>d10) ~~Exactly 37.5% of defense rolls, included in the percentage below, will result in a dodge.~~ *I don't think dodge takes precedence over miss anymore.* You can't dodge when stunned, but you can block instead. |S|+9|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1 |- |%|98.8|96.3|92.5|87.5|81.3|75|68.8|62.5|56.3 |stunned|98.8|96.3|92.5|87.5|81.3|73.8|65|55|45 |S|0|−1|−2|−3|-4|-5|-6 |- |%|50|45|41.3|38.8|*37.5*|*37.5*|*37.5* |stunned|35|26.3|18.8|12.5|7.5|3.8|1.3 *Elf guard* includes evade, which is now just a stronger version of dodge. Just like above, include the +2 guard bonus in the calculation of S. |S|+9|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1 |- |%|98.8|96.3|92.5|87.5|82.5|77.5|72.5|67.5|62.5 |S|0|−1|−2 |- |%|57.5|53.8|51.3 Thanks for the stats, which are very interesting! That must have taken quite some time to calculate. I didn't check as many configurations as you, but the few configurations I have tested seem to match your stats. For players who like to use the Dwarf vs Dragons, some interesting stats in my opinion is that the Dwarf has a ~54.2% chance to defend vs melee attacks with a +7 shield, 62.5% with a +8 shield and 70% with +9. This confirms the importance of getting a good shield for runs with a high number of Dragons as the differences between defend chances with different shields are pretty significant. It also shows that the Elf might be a better defender with her constant 62.5% evade chance than the Dwarf if you were unlucky and couldn't get better than a +7 shield (even though having only 2 HP and no resilience might not make her optimal). ##### Trinkets The October 16 update has changed the bottom halves of the dwarf and human tables. Your odds while underequipped are now significantly improved, if you can hold on to those trinkets. You can find your initial trinket count in the [fame table](https://www.dungeoneers.com/village#fame). If you don't have access to it, you can try the following formulas. - The fame level that unlocks the T-th trinket is T(T-1)/2+1. (e.g. T=3 gives F=6/2+1=4.) - The number of trinkets you have at fame F is √(2F-1.75), rounded to the nearest integer. (e.g. F=4 gives T=2.5, which rounds up to 3.) Rolling a defense 1 with a trinket on guarantees you a block, at the expense of possibly consuming your trinket (when necessary to prevent damage). More defensive heroes get a lower guarantee, but their trinkets last longer. **Dwarf block:** *d12 vs d10 with trinket* |S|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1 |- |%|99.2|97.5|95.0|91.7|87.5|82.5|76.7|70 |S|0|−1|−2|−3|−4|−5|−6|−7|−8|−9|−10|Min |- |%|62.5|54.2|45.9|38.3|31.7|25.8|20.8|16.7|13.3|10.8|9.2|8.33 Resilience: multiply by 85%, 70% if guarding. **Human block:** *d10 vs d10 with trinket* |S|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1 |- |%|99|97|94|90|85|79|72|64 |S|0|−1|−2|−3|−4|−5|−6|−7|−8|Min |- |%|55|46|38|31|25|20|16|13|11|10 **Elf block:** *d8 vs d10 with trinket* Dodge/deny is guaranteed on rolls of {1,6,7,8}, which makes it very similar to the trinketless evade table. |S|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1 |- |%|98.8|96.3|92.5|87.5|82.5|77.5|72.5|67.5 |stunned|98.8|96.3|92.5|87.5|81.3|73.8|65|56.3 |S|0|−1|−2|−3|-4|-5|-6|Min |- |%|62.5|57.5|53.8|51.3|*50*|*50*|*50*|50 |stunned|47.5|38.8|31.3|25|20|16.3|13.8|12.5 **Elf Guard:** Similarly, the minimum evade chance is 5/8. |S|+8|+7|+6|+5|+4|+3|+2|+1 |- |%|98.8|96.3|92.5|88.8|85|81.3|77.5|73.8 |S|0|−1|−2|Min |- |%|70|66.3|63.8|62.5% **Trinket consumption**: To calculate the chance of consuming a trinket (per defense roll): - Calculate 10−S, and multiply by 10%. Treat negative values as 0%, and values above 100% as 100%. - Divide the result by the size of your defense die. - If you have the mithril vest, multiply by 0.8. - Dwarves, multiply by 0.85 (or 0.7 for Hunker) if resilience applies. Awesome work, thank you very much! The introduction of the mithril vest is too much for a comprehensive table, and I've decided to remove the long resilience/double resilience tables above rather than update them in time for forum closing. Here's a smaller table to help you calculate with the modifiers for Mithril Vest (V), Resilience (R) and Hunker Resilience (H): |Type|Multiplier|Min %|%|%|%|%|% |- |Base|1.00|0|10|30|50|70|90 |V|0.80|20|28|44|60|76|92 | |R|0.85|15|23.5|40.5|57.5|74.5|91.5 |H|0.70|30|37|51|65|79|93 |VR|0.68|32|38.8|52.4|66|79.6|93.2 |VH|0.56|44|49.6|60.8|72|83.2|94.4 According to my testing, the mithril vest will also save you from slime and reaper hits, if you're lucky enough.